Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Pistons vs. Cavs, Spurs vs. Timberwolves in Game 6

A Conference Finals berth is on the line for multiple teams on Friday night, as the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers won their Game 5 matchups to take control of their respective series heading into these two Game 6s:

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves

While it would be great to get at least one Game 7 out of these two series, oddsmakers have set the Spurs and Cavs as favorites on Friday night.

So, how should we bet on these playoff matchups?

This postseason, I’ve bet on every playoff game in SI Betting’s “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge, and the rules for this are pretty easy to understand:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

So, after the Spurs dominated Game 5 on Tuesday night, and the Cavs took home Game 5 on Wednesday in overtime, I got in the lab to figure out how to wager on these two elimination games.

Cleveland has not lost a game at home in the 2026 postseason while the Timberwolves are 4-1 at home despite being an underdog in all five of those games. Do the Pistons and Timberwolves have any magic in them to force a Game 7?

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bet for each of these games on Friday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I like the Spurs to cover the spread and close out this series:

Minnesota has been a great story this postseason, as it has fought back without a healthy team to force six games in the Western Conference semifinals. Despite that, I can’t get behind the Wolves at this number in Game 6.

Minnesota may only be alive in this series because of Wembanyama’s ejection (which was deserved) in Game 4, and it failed to cover at home in Game 3, allowing him to score 39 points in the process.

The Spurs are the No. 1 defense in the NBA Playoffs and rank in the top three in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating and effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the Wolves are shooting just 41.4 percent from the field in this series, and they’ve simply been outclassed since Game 2. Yes, Minnesota is 4-1 straight up at home, but it has been blown out twice by a Spurs team that has more depth.

Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels have not been efficient enough scoring the ball in this series to help Anthony Edwards, and the Spurs have done a great job taking the Wolves out of their rhythm on offense by blitzing Edwards. That’s led to 80 turnovers in five games, making it extremely tough for Minnesota to keep pace with an efficient Spurs offense.

It’s certainly possible that the Wolves force a Game 7, but it’s hard to look at the results of this series and say that these teams are equals. After all, Minnesota now has a minus-3.5 net rating in the playoffs despite winning six of 11 games.

Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-175) vs. Detroit Pistons

These teams have scored the exact same number of points through five games, and Wednesday's Game 5 was the first time a road team won – or covered the spread – in this series.

The Cavs needed overtime to make that happen, but Cleveland has yet to lose a game at home in this postseason, and I don’t expect that to change on Friday night.

All postseason long, the Pistons’ offense has come up short with Jalen Duren regressing big time from his play in the regular season and the extreme lack of a secondary ball-handler against Cade Cunningham becoming extremely evident in close games.

Detroit has an offensive rating of 110.8 in the playoffs while ranking 10th out of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage and 14th in turnover percentage.

The Cavs’ offense has struggled on the road in the playoffs, leading to a 1-5 road record, but at home Cleveland is much more efficient. The Cavs’ offensive rating goes from 106.7 on the road to 120.4 at home. That’s nearly 14 more points per 100 possessions!

Detroit has come back from a series deficit once in this postseason, but it needed a 19-point second half from the Orlando Magic in Game 6 of the first round to force a Game 7. That’s not going to happen in this game, and Detroit has just one road win all postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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