Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Spurs vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 1

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is upon us, and the matchup that the entire basketball world has been waiting for is set to take place.

The two teams with the best records in the regular season – Oklahoma City and San Antonio – will face off with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, and the defending champion Thunder are favored to win Game 1 and this series.

OKC has yet to lose a game this postseason, but it struggled against Victor Wembanyama and company in the regular season, going 1-4 straight up, losing three of those games as favorites.

So, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have their work cut out for them in this series.

This postseason, I’ve challenged myself to bet on every single game, and that is going to continue in the Western Conference and Eastern Conference Finals. The “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge has a few simple rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

This Game 1 is arguably the most anticipated game of the season to date, and I’m eyeing a side with these two title favorites ready to square off.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

In today’s betting preview for Game 1, I shared why I like the Spurs as underdogs on Monday night:

How much weight can we put into the regular season when it comes to this matchup?

The Spurs had OKC’s number, winning three games outright as underdogs while going 4-1 overall in five regular-season meetings. So, getting them as 6.5-point underdogs seems pretty favorable in Game 1.

The Thunder did have a commanding win in their final meeting (where most of the rotation players suited up), but I still think there is a case for this San Antonio team that just blitzed Minnesota to end the Western Conference semis.

There’s always the “Rest vs. Rust” question entering a series like this, though the Thunder had a similar situation in the second round and came out strong against the Lakers in Game 1.

Still, I think the Thunder showed in the second round that a team can hang around if they take SGA out of things on offense. Los Angeles led at half in two of the four games, and had it been a deeper team (like San Antonio is) it may have been able to steal one of those games. Plus, the Lakers were operating without their best offensive player in Luka Doncic.

The Spurs are well-equipped (at least better than the Lakers) to handle the SGA challenge, and they have the Defensive Player of the Year (Wemby) protecting everything at the rim.

I’m not going to say that the Spurs will pull off an upset, but San Antonio was 10-5 against the spread as a road underdog in the regular season, and it had a top-three offensive, defensive and net rating.

Oklahoma City has been pretty dominant at home (34-7 in the regular season, 4-0 in the playoffs). When it comes to the betting side of things, the Thunder are a little more vulnerable than you’d expect at home. They have covered the spread in just 21 of 44 games as a home favorite.

I don’t mind taking the points at this line in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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