Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is a must-watch event, as the two top teams in the odds to win the NBA Finals square off for the sixth time in the 2025-26 season.

MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 6.5-point favorites at home in Game 1 of this series with the San Antonio Spurs, and these teams battled all year long for the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference.

San Antonio came up short in the standings, but it did win four of the five meetings between these teams, including three of the four when Jalen Williams was in the lineup. Williams has missed a ton of time this season for OKC, including the last six playoff games with a hamstring injury.

However, he’s listed as available on the team’s injury report ahead of Game 1 and is expected to play.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs had a little bit of a scare in the second round against Minnesota, sitting at 2-2 heading into Game 5, but they were plus-59 over the last two games of the series to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals.

Will the Spurs’ magic against the Thunder carry into the playoffs?

These teams both finished the regular season in the top three in the league in defensive and net rating, and they are No. 2 (OKC) and No. 3 (SAS) in net rating this postseason.

I’m eyeing several plays for Game 1, and I’m aiming to share multiple prop bets – one for each team – through the Conference Finals.

Let’s dive into the odds and predictions for Game 1 on Monday night.

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Spurs +6.5 (-105)
Thunder -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Spurs: +215
Thunder: -265

Total

219.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Spurs vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 18
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 0-0

Spurs vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

De'Aaron Fox -- questionable
Luke Kornet -- questionable

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out

Spurs vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-173)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Wemby on the glass in Game 1:

Wembanyama’s rebounding has been a major key for the Spurs this postseason, as he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs despite leaving Game 2 against Portland and Game 4 against Minnesota in the first half (one with an injury and one for an ejection).

The former No. 1 overall pick has six playoff games with 12 or more boards, and he’s seen his minutes jump in a big way from where they were in the regular season. That’s important to note in this prop because Wemby was on a minutes restriction in several games against OKC this season.

He had nine, five and 11 boards in his first three games against the Thunder, playing less than 26 minutes in each of those matchups. In the one game where he played over 28 minutes against OKC, Wembanyama came away with 14 boards.

As good as the Thunder have been, they do have some issues on the glass. They finished the regular season at No. 22 in the league in rebound percentage, and they are a pretty beatable team on the glass when Isaiah Hartenstein is off the floor.

Wembanyama is averaging over 16 rebound chances per game in the playoffs despite leaving two games early, so he has a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Ajay Mitchell OVER 12.5 Points (-129)

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m trusting Mitchell to remain in a featured role in Game 1:

Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell has put together an extremely impressive postseason, and he could be an X-Factor in this series. Mitchell missed multiple regular season games against the Spurs due to injury, yet he’s been arguably the second-best offensive player for the Thunder in the playoffs.

Mitchell is averaging 18.8 points per game in the postseason, shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3. He’s scored at least 13 points in seven of eight games, taking on an expanded role with Jalen Williams (hamstring) sidelined.

Even with Williams returning for Game 1, Mitchell should have a featured role on offense, especially when SGA is on the bench.

He’s taking almost 15 shots per game in the postseason, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to any scoring prop. I’m buying him at this discounted number in Game 1.

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

How much weight can we put into the regular season when it comes to this matchup?

The Spurs had OKC’s number, winning three games outright as underdogs while going 4-1 overall in five regular-season meetings. So, getting them as 6.5-point underdogs seems pretty favorable in Game 1.

The Thunder did have a commanding win in their final meeting (where most of the rotation players suited up), but I still think there is a case for this San Antonio team that just blitzed Minnesota to end the Western Conference semis.

There’s always the “Rest vs. Rust” question entering a series like this, though the Thunder had a similar situation in the second round and came out strong against the Lakers in Game 1.

Still, I think the Thunder showed in the second round that a team can hang around if they take SGA out of things on offense. Los Angeles led at half in two of the four games, and had it been a deeper team (like San Antonio is) it may have been able to steal one of those games. Plus, the Lakers were operating without their best offensive player in Luka Doncic.

The Spurs are well-equipped (at least better than the Lakers) to handle the SGA challenge, and they have the Defensive Player of the Year (Wemby) protecting everything at the rim.

I’m not going to say that the Spurs will pull off an upset, but San Antonio was 10-5 against the spread as a road underdog in the regular season, and it had a top-three offensive, defensive and net rating.

Oklahoma City has been pretty dominant at home (34-7 in the regular season, 4-0 in the playoffs). When it comes to the betting side of things, the Thunder are a little more vulnerable than you’d expect at home. They have covered the spread in just 21 of 44 games as a home favorite.

I don’t mind taking the points at this line in Game 1.

Pick: Spurs +6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google