Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Spurs vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 5

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are looking to win a second straight game to take control of their series with the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night, but it’s the defending champs that are favored.

OKC won Games 2 and 3 to re-take home court, but it was unable to secure a 3-1 series lead, losing by 21 points in Game 4. The Spurs held the Thunder to just 82 points in that game with Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) both out of the lineup. Williams is now questionable for Game 5.

Still, OKC is a 5.5-point favorite at home, where it went 1-1 in the first two games of this series, losing Game 1 in double overtime.

Each day in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, I’m placing one bet for each game, and the Western Conference Finals have been an extremely fun series to wager on and watch.

The “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge is simple, and there are only a few more games to go before the NBA Finals actually begin:

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Game 5 is everything for both of these teams, as the winner traditionally goes on to win the series since they only need to win one of the next two matchups.

Here’s how I’m betting on the spread in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs +5.5 (-110) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

In my betting preview for Game 5 of this series, I broke down why I’m trusting the Spurs to cover the spread as road underdogs:

Did San Antonio figure something out defensively in Game 4?

The Spurs held the Thunder to just 82 points, and OKC’s offense has really struggled without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. The two-time MVP may not be shooting the ball as well as he usually does, but he’s the only true creator on offense with Mitchell and Williams banged up.

Holmgren’s lack of contributions on offense have become a major concern for the Thunder, and they need more from players like Jared McCain, Cason Wallace and others that are being asked to play bigger roles than they should in a Conference Final.

San Antonio won outright in Game 1, and has covered the spread in two of the four games in this series. Overall, the Spurs are 11-6 against the spread as road underdogs in the 2025-26 season, including a 1-1 record in this series.

Game 2 was a nine-point loss by the Spurs, but it was a one-possession game in the closing minutes. I’m not sure if San Antonio will pull off the upset, but I do think we’re in line for another close matchup in Game 5.

Both of these teams know how important this game is for their chances of winning the series, and with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in the lineup, I think San Antonio has a slightly higher ceiling than it did in the first two games of this series.

With the OKC offense struggling to get going, I think San Antonio (No. 1 in defensive rating this postseason) at least keeps this game close.

If you’re willing to go even further and take the Spurs to win, the price for that is +164 at DraftKings. Personally, I like getting the cushion with the points, but it’s hard to look at the OKC offense from Game 4 and think it can win this series.

The Thunder are going to need someone to step up – or some health luck – to put away the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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