Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Thunder vs. Spurs Western Conference Finals Game 3

What better way to go into Memorial Day Weekend than with Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs?

This series has lived up to the hype – and then some – sitting at one game apiece after a double-overtime thriller in Game 1 and a huge bounce back by the defending champs in Game 2.

Now, the Spurs find themselves as small favorites at home in Game 3, as they look to maintain home court in this series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stepped up in a big way for the Thunder in Game 2, scoring 30 points, and he’s the subject of today’s “Road to the NBA Finals” pick.

This postseason, I’ve challenged myself to bet on every NBA playoff game, and the rules of the challenge are relatively simple:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

So, on Game 3, I’m taking a prop for SGA, but not the one that you’d expect. Known for his scoring, the two-time MVP has actually excelled as a passer in the playoffs, and he may be undervalued in the prop market with the Spurs intent on slowing him down from getting to his usual average scoring the ball.

Let’s dive into this play for a crucial Game 3 in the the Western Conference Finals.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists (-156)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is a great prop target in Game 3:

SGA is known for being arguably the best scorer in the NBA, but his passing has been a difference-maker for the Thunder in the 2026 postseason.

The two-time league MVP is averaging 7.8 assists per game in the playoffs, way up from his average in the regular season (6.6). He’s picked up at least eight dimes in seven of his 10 playoff games, recording 12 assists in Game 1 of this series and nine in Game 2.

With Williams aggravating his hamstring injury, SGA is going to see even more defensive pressure in Game 3. He’s handled it well so far in this series as a playmaker, turning the ball over just five times.

In the playoffs overall, SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop. If the Spurs are going to continue to sell out to keep him from scoring, I trust the Thunder role players to knock down shots around.

Shai has hit this prop in four consecutive games against a very similar scheme (the Los Angeles Lakers double-teamed and trapped him quite a bit in the second round), and he’s remained a willing passer throughout the postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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