Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Thunder vs. Spurs Western Conference Finals Game 4

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey is betting on every NBA game this postseason. Here’s a breakdown of his best bet for Game 4 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target in Game 4. | Brett Rojo-Imagn Images

A huge swing game is set for Sunday night, as the San Antonio Spurs trail the Oklahoma City Thunder two games to one in the Western Conference Finals. 

OKC has won back-to-back games, and it could take complete control of this series in Game 4 before the series shifts back to OKC for Game 5. The Thunder are underdogs in Game 4, but they won outright as dogs on Friday night, riding a huge game from their bench. 

The depth of the Thunder has been huge, as both teams have had to weather injuries to some of their top rotation players during this series. 

The “Road to the NBA Finals” challenge doesn’t sleep – even on a holiday weekend – and I’m coming off a nice win in Game 3 with the Thunder covering the spread in their Game 3 win. Here’s a quick refresher on the rules for this challenge: 

• Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
• Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
• ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

In Game 4, I’m targeting a player prop that has crushed in this series, as Gilgeous-Alexander has started to figure out how to beat this San Antonio defense, even if he’s not scoring at as high of a level as he did in the regular season. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is a great prop target in Game 4: 

SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game in the 2026 postseason, and he’s been a willing passer in this series against San Antonio. 

Through three games, the two-time MVP has 12, nine and 12 assists, picking up eight or more in eight of his last 10 playoff games. He’s seeing a ton of double teams from San Antonio, and the Thunder have stepped up with players like Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams and several others making big shots off the bench. 

This is the second straight series that has required SGA to be a passer first and a scorer second, and he’s shown he is more than willing to distribute the ball in this series. I think this line is a steal ahead of Game 4.

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