Road to the NBA Finals: Predictions, Picks for Every NBA Play-In Tournament Game on Tuesday

A two-month journey to the NBA Finals begins on Tuesday, April 14 with the NBA’s Play-In Tournament, and this year I’m introducing a new series for Sports Illustrated:

Road to the NBA Finals: Betting on Every Game in the 2026 NBA Postseason.

If you’ve been following our work here at SI Betting, you’ve seen my colleague Iain MacMillan bet on every NFL game during the season (Road to 272) and in the playoffs, and this year we decided to bet on every March Madness game as well.

Placing bets at this high of a volume isn’t the best strategy for winning, but we’re looking to have some fun when it comes to these picks while giving fans of every team something to consider before the games.

This week, there is play-in tournament action on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday that will decide the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds in each conference.

Tuesday’s games feature one No. 10 vs. No. 9 matchup (the Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets) and a No. 8 vs. No. 7 matchup (the Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns). The winner of the Suns-Blazers game will face the No. 2-seeded San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.

The rules for Road to the NBA Finals are simple:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

So, without further ado, the first edition of this year’s Road to the NBA Finals picks – which start with a spread pick and a total.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Charlotte Hornets -5.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat

Can the Hornets go from the No. 9 seed to the playoffs with back-to-back wins?

No team in the NBA had a better against the spread record in the regular season than the Hornets, and they thrived in 21 games as a home favorite, going 14-7 ATS. The Hornets posted an average scoring margin of +11.2 in those games – showing that they can win big even in this matchup.

Miami has far more experience in the play-in/playoffs under Erik Spoelstra, but Charles Lee’s Hornets have played a unique brand of basketball that landed them at eighth in the league in net rating, fifth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating.

Miami (No. 1 in pace) loves to play fast, but it ranked just 12th in the league in offensive rating during the regular season. So, playing at a faster pace doesn’t guarantee that the Heat will be able to pull away from this Hornets team, especially since Miami’s defense slipped over the final stretch of the regular season.

The Heat were just 5-10 over their last 15 games, ranking 20th in net rating and 28th in defensive rating, spoiling an offensive stretch where they were the ninth-most efficient group in the league.

The Hornets’ rise into the top-eight in net rating came over a long period of time, as they were one of the five-best teams (in net rating) for basically the last three months of the regular season.

This spread doesn’t scare me away from Charlotte, even though the Heat did go 16-14 against the spread as road underdogs. There’s a reason Charlotte is +146 to make the playoffs out of the No. 9 spot, and I think it will overpower a Miami team that isn’t nearly as efficient on the offensive end.

Portland Trail Blazers-Phoenix Suns UNDER 217.5 (-110)

The UNDER may be the play in the Western Conference play-in matchup n Tuesday with the No. 7 seed on the line. Even though two of the three meetings between these teams finished with 237 or more points, the final game between these squads in late February was a 92-77 win for Portland.

I don’t want to overrate any regular-season matchup, and I actually like the UNDER because of some season-long trends:

The UNDER hit in 27 of the Suns’ 41 home games
The UNDER hit in 24 of the Blazers’ 41 road games

Plus, Phoenix has the No. 9 defensive rating in the NBA this season, and it ranks seventh in the league in defensive rating at home (111.1). Jordan Ott’s group is going to compete on that end of the floor, even if it isn’t loaded with playoff experience up and down the roster.

Portland wasn’t as good defensively as the Suns during the regular season 12th in defensive rating), but it also ranked just 21st in the league in offensive rating (Phoenix was 17th).

We could see a defensive battle in this matchup, especially since both teams lack playoff-level experience for a lot of their rotation pieces.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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