Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Every Game 1 on Saturday

This NBA season, I am starting a new challenge with Road to the NBA Finals – where I am betting on every play-in and playoff game through the final game in the Finals.

After a week of play-in tournament bets, we finally have Game 1 matchups on Saturday, April 18, with all the No. 3, 4, 5 and 6 seeds in action:

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

So, how should we attack these games from a betting perspective?

When it comes to this Road to the NBA Finals challenge, there are only a couple of rules:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

On Saturday, I’m targeting LeBron James and Anthony Edwards to headline the four bets for these Game 1s.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Toronto Raptors +8.5 (-115) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

All season long, the Cavs have been shaky against the spread, and I don’t think that changes in Game 1.

Cleveland’s offense took a step forward in the second half of the season with James Harden in the fold, but the Cavs were just 18th in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star break.

Their inability to get stops – and lack of elite wing defenders – is a major concern against this Toronto team. Sure, the Raptors are not an elite offensive group, but their three best scorers – Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes – are all bigger wings that the Cavs may not have the personnel to match up with.

Toronto also finished the season with the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, showing that it can stay in games on that end of the floor.

The Cavs were awful as home favorites this season, posting the second-worst against the spread record in the NBA (15-23). That, and the fact that they’ve struggled to get stops for a couple of months, makes it tough to bet on them as such a major favorite on Saturday.

Anthony Edwards OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-168)

Even if he’s at less than 100 percent, Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards is worth a look in this market on Saturday.

Edwards made three or more shots from beyond the arc in two of his three meetings with Denver this season, and he shot 39.9 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season, averaging 3.4 made 3-pointers per game. In his entire postseason career, Edwards is averaging 3.1 made 3-pointers on over eight attempts per night.

So, this number is a bit of a steal, especially since Denver (21st in defensive rating) has struggled defending the 3-ball in the 2025-26 campaign. During the regular season, the Nuggets allowed 13.6 3-pointers per game (18th in the NBA) despite posting the third-best opponent 3-point percentage.

Atlanta Hawks-New York Knicks UNDER 216.5 (-110)

I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in Game 1 between these Eastern Conference rivals, especially since two of their regular season games fell short of this total.

The Knicks rank just 25th in the NBA in pace, which could offset Atlanta’s up-and-down style. Every year, playoff games seem to slow down a little and teams are forced to play in the half court, which leads to much lower-scoring games.

The UNDER was 45-38 in the Knicks’ games this season (including the NBA Cup Final) and 41-41 in Atlanta’s matchups. The Hawks really picked up their defense after the All-Star break, ranking No. 2 in the league in defensive rating.

The Knicks aren’t slouches on that end, finishing seventh in defensive rating overall and eighth in that statistic after the break.

LeBron James OVER 8.5 Assists (-134)

If you’re betting on a Lakers prop bet, the four-time NBA Finals MVP is the only choice to make.

This season, LeBron is averaging 22.2 points, 10.3 assists and 7.0 rebounds per game with Luka Doncic out of the lineup, and he’s recorded at least 10 dimes in eight of those games.

James is going to have to shoulder a massive workload on Saturday night, and the Rockets are likely going to force him to give the ball up to see if L.A.’s role players can beat them.

The NBA’s all-time leading scorer is also one of the greatest passers of all time, and it feels like James has another level to reach in the playoffs to keep the Lakers’ season alive. I’ll bet on him to clear this line, even though Houston allowed just 24.5 opponent assists per game in the 2025-26 campaign.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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