Rocket Classic Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Michael Thorbjorsen, Jake Knapp and Hideki Matsuyama

After undergoing a massive renovation, Detroit Golf Club prepares to host its final Rocket Classic. Like the tournament itself, the SI Golf betting panel is looking to finish with a bang these next two weeks before the FedExCup Playoffs and Tour Championship, which, personally, is my least favorite event to bet on.

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

It’s interesting timing for Detroit GC to lose this tournament. They just underwent a large-scale renovation to make it tougher for the pros. But such is the result of the new two-tier PGA Tour system, with sponsors like Rocket opposed to paying to play second fiddle. Ironically enough, this is probably the strongest field Rocket has had since bringing the tournament to Michigan in 2019.

Cameron Young (+1000), Chris Gotterup (+1800), rookie sensation Jackson Koivun (+2000), Xander Schauffele (+2000) and reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (+2200) highlight this field and sit atop the oddsboard at FanDuel. Surprisingly, Schauffele is the only player from that list not to win this year.

Detroit GC was historically one of the easiest courses on Tour, but it’s made several changes to increase the challenge this year. The most notable was turning two reachable Par 5s into two long Par 4s. They also recontoured several greens to get back to the original Donald Ross design and increased the size and number of bunkers. Overall, this should be a sterner test.

That said, this course has always rewarded length off the tee and accuracy on approach. That shouldn’t change too much, even with the renovations. The only adjustment I added was approach shots from 200+ yards. Distance off the tee and making birdies in bunches still matter!

Let’s get into our picks for this week with a full breakdown of why we made our picks below the graphic.

expert pga tour rocket classic betting picks — Rocket Classic Betting Picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Si Woo Kim +2200 (BetMGM)

Si Woo Kim is in the midst of the best statistical season of his career, so it's baffling that he doesn't have a win yet. He's fifth on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season and second in the field this week in total true strokes gained over the past three months. The good news is his short game has come around lately, leading to a T9 finish at the Scottish Open and a T6 finish at the British Open.

Brian Kirschner: Michael Thorbjorsen +4200 (DraftKings)

Thor finished one shot out of a playoff at this event last year and has been showing signs as of late. I think that many people have been waiting for Thor to break through in 2026 and this really should be a great spot for him. An elite driver, we just need the putter to finally start to get going again. He finished T7 at the Scottish and made the cut at the Open. It's time for him to get his first win on tour.

Brad Thomas: Parlay Cameron Young + Nelly Korda +10500 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young has an outstanding history at this course with a runner-up finish and a T6. It’s one of the best course fits on the PGA TOUR for him, and his game is in outstanding form. Already a multiple time winner this season, Young has established himself as one of the best ball strikers in the world. Nelly is a fun addition. She hasn’t won in a few starts and is due to add another big win to her resume.

Byron Lindeque: Wyndham Clark +2200 (DraftKings)

A missed cut at the Open, in the major start after winning his second US Open, which was only his third major top 20 of his career (no surprise). But, before that, he finished 13th, 5th, WIN, 11th, 3rd and WIN. He has been flirting with contention just about every time he has played since his win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. At a golf course that allows big hitters to get over the line if the other areas of their game provide adequate support, Wyndham will be looking to lift his third trophy of the year.

Cody Williams: Jake Knapp +3200 (DraftKings)

In fighting to return from injury, we’ve seen Jake Knapp have some issues with his strength, namely his game off the tee. But that seemed to get remedied last week at the 3M when he gained 3.1 strokes off the tee en route to a T13 finish. Oh, he also gained more than seven strokes on approach and has been 16th in SG: Approach over the last 16 rounds. Now he’s heading to Detroit, where he’s finished T4 and T31 in two career starts. This situation between his returning form and the course fit feels like the perfect match.

Brian Giuffra: Hideki Matsuyama +3200 (DraftKings)

While not quite the bomber you want for this course, Matsuyama profiles well at Detroit Golf Club with two T13 finishes here and plenty of other solid performances at comp courses. What really stands out to me, however, is recent form. He was T3 at the 3M Open last week and T14 at the Travelers and Open Championship before that. The last time we saw a similar run like this, he won the Hero World Challenge and was second at the Phoenix Open, which he should have won. I think Deki wins one down the home stretch. This feels like a good place to do it.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Austin Smotherman +25000 (TheScore Bet)

J.J. Spaun and Si Woo Kim are the only golfers in the field this week who have gained more strokes with their approach play than Austin Smotherman over the past three months. Unfortunately, Smotherman's short game has been horrendous. With that being said, we saw a glimmer of hope from him in that area at last week's 3M Open. He gained +0.1 strokes putting and lost only -0.25 strokes with his play around the greens en route to a T24 finish. If he takes another step forward in that area this week, there's a chance he's in contention on the weekend.

Brian Kirschner: Rasmus Neergard Peterson +9800 (DraftKings)

This seems like a great price on a golfer who is coming off a T9 and T20 finish overseas at the Scottish and The Open. Rasmus is an elite driver who should really be helped with this course setup. The putter has been poor this year, but I think once he gets off those slow links greens, he can pop. He has won big events before and I think he can contend in Detroit.

Brad Thomas: Billy Horschel +19500 (DraftKings)

The funniest thing about betting Billy Horschel this week is that I actually faded him a few times last week. After the first two rounds, though, it became obvious he was playing some really good golf. The ball striking was fantastic, and the putter looked great. Funny enough, Horschel made a putter change before last week’s event, and it seemed to pay dividends. I think he could be a sneaky winner this week.

Byron Lindeque: Aldrich Potgieter +10500 (DraftKings)

We get triple-digit odds on the defending champ, who finished 8th at the Canadian Open only five starts ago. The young South African prodigy is still looking for the week-to-week consistency that his upside seems to have left in the dark ages. If we get a driver-heavy venue, with 12 approach shots from 150+, Bentgrass greens and triple-digit odds, you will usually find the young star on my betting card.

Cody Williams: Neal Shipley +25000 (BetMGM)

Admittedly, we’re taking a long, long shot in the dark here with Neal Shipley, but I’m fascinated by the ball-striking profile that we’re seeing with the former viral Masters sensation. He gained 9.7+ strokes with his ball-striking at the 3M last week (though he lost 8.6+ with his short game to finish T44). He’s now gained strokes ball-striking in five of his last six events, with three weeks gaining 3.7+, but his short game hasn’t allowed him to parlay that into a great finish. That has to flip for at least one week at some point, and the T20 here in 2024 seems like as good a spot as you’ll find.

Brian Giuffra: Ryo Hisatsune +8000 (Bet365)

Hisatsune covers a lot of bases you want for this tournament. He’s long and accurate off the tee, is one of the most accurate players on approach, plays long par 4s well and makes a ton of birdies. Of course, his short game and putting have been spotty all year. That said, he was T9 at the John Deere and made the cut at the Open Championship in his last two starts, where, as usual, his ball striking was sublime. I’m willing to bet on him at a course that rewards tee-to-green dominance.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Michael Brennan +6100 (DraftKings)

Michael Brennan was in contention last week until a bad final round caused him to fall to T24. Instead of betting on him to put together four strong rounds, I’m going to bet on him to be the first-round leader. He’s ninth in the field in total strokes gained in the first round of events over the past six months. His strong play off the tee should give him an advantage this week.

Brian Kirschner: Rickie Fowler +6000 (FanDuel)

I think 60/1 is a great price on a past champion in great form. Rickie finished top 20 in his last two starts and won here in 2023. He has gone on streaks this year of playing really great golf. I think we can see another run from him again. He can certainly start fast and be FRL at the Rocket.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +4500 (MGM)

Last season, Jake Knapp was one of the best first-round golfers on Tour. This season has been interrupted by injuries, so it’s hard to tell completely if that carried over. What I'm hoping does carry over is the way he played on Sunday at the 3M. Knapp made eight straight birdies on the back nine and posted one of the best rounds of the day. Another great course fit, if he brings that juice, he will be FRL.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +4900 (DraftKings)

Nobody in the field has gained more strokes (last 12 months) in round 1 than Russell Henley (+2.0). He has a win this year and is capable of leading the field after a Thursday, as he has done nine times since 2015, with two of them coming last year. We get +4900 odds on the No. 5 golfer in the world, who plays his best golf in R1. Roll them in Russ!

Cody Williams: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +8200 (DraftKings)

Second in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in strokes-gained in Round 1 over the last 16 rounds? That sounds like a fun profile for Detroit Golf Club and a first-round leader swing. We know that the long-hitting and ball-striking talent for Neergaard-Petersen is there, but there’s still a deserved lack of faith in him putting all four rounds together. I like the way this sets up for him to make some early noise this week.

Brian Giuffra: Akshay Bhatia +5400 (DraftKings)

Bhatia was T2 here in 2024. While the course is different now, his game should still profile well here. He’s long off the tee, reliable around the greens and one of the most consistent putters out there. All we need is a spike round on approach to start and Bhatia should be right there after Round 1. He’s 51st on Tour in Round 1 scoring average, so there’s no reason to believe that can’t happen. Plus, I love his early tee time.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Ryan Gerard Top 20 +200 (FanDuel)

Ryan Gerard's game has been trending in the right direction. He has gone from a T44 at the Travelers Championship, T26 at the Scottish Open, and then a T9 at the British Open, where he gained strokes in all four major areas while being both extremely accurate and long off the tee. If his game continues to trend in the right direction, a top 20 finish in an event with a much weaker field than what he played in while in Europe should be well within his capability.

Brian Kirschner: Davis Thompson Top 20 +250 (DraftKings)

Davis hit the ball incredibly well last week and has a runner-up finish here. Sometimes it can be that simple, +250 on a top 20 seems like a really fair number. I don’t know if he is quite ready to win just yet, but a top 20 seems like an easy finish for this past JDC winner.

Brad Thomas: Cam Davis Top 40 +380 (DraftKings)

This is sicko material. I was expecting his top 20 price to be this number. If there’s such a thing as a “Cam Davis Course,” then Detroit CC is it.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley Top 20 +125 (BetMGM)

65% of the time, Russell Henley finishes inside the top 20 100% of the time. He has a top 10 here in his only start since 2022 and a 9th at the Open after a 12th at the Travelers. His accuracy off the tee, stellar approach play and air-tight short game give him a floor that sees this plus money bet come home 2/3rds of the time.

Cody Williams: Austin Smotherman Top 20 incl. ties +550 (BetMGM)

The off-the-tee numbers haven’t been pretty of late for Austin Smotherman. Neither have the short game performances. But he has been dialed in on approach, ranking fourth in strokes-gained in that department over the last 16 rounds, and showed signs of life with the short game last week. While I’m not sure he can put together four rounds of short game play to win this week, this number is far too long for a player hitting it as well as he is, especially with a historically strong driving and overall ball-striking pedigree.

Brian Giuffra: Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 incl. ties +150 (BetMGM)

Don’t look now, but your boy is riding hot in the prop market, hitting three plus-money picks in a row, including Emiliano Grillo Top 20 +290 last week. Of course, now that I’ve said that, this won’t hit, but I’ll stick with the philosophy that got me here. If I think a player is good enough to win, I also should think they’re good enough to finish in the Top 20. Matsuyama has finished inside the Top 20 in his last three starts. He did it four straight times earlier in the season. When he’s hot, he’s hot. Hopefully I can stay in that zone too.

Winning score

Iain MacMillan: -19
Brian Kirschner: -17
Brad Thomas: -18
Byron Lindeque: -21
Cody Williams: -20
Brian Giuffra: -18

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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