Rockets vs. Lakers Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs (Any Hope for L.A.?)

LeBron James has one of his toughest playoff tests of his storied NBA career this postseason, as the No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers are massive underdogs in the first round against the No. 5 Houston Rockets.

The Lakers are down Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique), pushing them to +15000 to win the NBA Finals.

James has turned back the clock in recent games with Doncic and Reaves out, but it’s a lot to ask him to carry a short-handed Lakers team to a first-round series win, especially with Kevin Durant and the Rockets peaking at the right time.

Houston closed out the regular season strong, ranking fifth in the NBA in net rating over its last 15 games, going 11-4 during that stretch. Houston has struggled in clutch-time offense (20th in offensive rating) this season, but it finished sixth in the NBA in net rating during the regular season.

As a result, the Rockets are -600 favorites to win this series, even though they are the lower seed and will begin on the road. The Lakers could get Doncic and Reaves back at some point in the playoffs, but head coach J.J. Redick recently said both are “out indefinitely.”

The SI Betting and NBA experts have teamed up to deliver picks for every first-round series, including this potentially lopsided Western Conference battle.

First, let’s look at all the different series markets, including the series spread, total games and more for Rockets vs. Lakers.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Rockets vs. Lakers Series Odds

Rockets: -600
Lakers: +425

Based on the odds for this matchup, the Rockets have an implied probability of 85.71 percent to advance to the second round.

Rockets vs. Lakers Series Spread

Rockets -2.5 (+100)
Lakers +2.5 (-120)

Rockets vs. Lakers Series Correct Score

Rockets in 6: +250
Rockets in 4: +265
Rockets in 5: +290
Rockets in 7: +700
Lakers in 7: +850
Lakers in 6: +2000
Lakers in 5: +2200
Lakers in 4: +5000

Rockets vs. Lakers Series Total Games

5.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Could the Lakers force a Game 6 or Game 7 and potentially get Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves back? Oddsmakers have set the total in this series at 5.5 games, but it’s a near pick’em ahead of Game 1.

Rockets vs. Lakers Series Predictions

Peter Dewey

Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are “out indefinitely,” according to J.J. Redick, making it really hard to see a path to a Lakers upsetting Houston in the first round.

LeBron James has played at a genuinely absurd level for a 41-year-old, but the lack of shot creation around him is a major issue against a Houston team that closed the regular season strong, finishing eighth in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and sixth in net rating. Houston’s clutch offense (20th in the NBA) could be an issue against the Lakers (No. 1 in clutch offense), but will L.A. be able to hang around enough to even force a few clutch games in this series?

Even with Houston having some serious shooting concerns, I simply can’t back the Lakers to win four times if Doncic and Reaves don’t play. James may be able to get the Lakers a game or two, but L.A. needs to hold out hope that at least one of the star guards will return before the end of the series. I think Houston is able to close things out before that happens.

Pick: Rockets in 6 (-600, +250)

Chris Mannix

I’d love to see LeBron James turn back the clock and steer the Lakers to an improbable series win. But it would be very improbable. Houston is a flawed team but the Rockets are positively loaded with wing defenders who are going to make it their mission to wear down James’s 41-year old body. And when James is off the floor, where do the Lakers go? DeAndre Ayton post ups? Luke Kennard pick-and-rolls? Losing 50-plus points is insurmountable for any team, including the one led by an all-time great.

Pick: Rockets in 6 (-600, +250)

Liam McKeone

Watching LeBron rage against the dying light is going to be really, really fun. Watching him duel against KD with something on the line for the first time in many years will be the same. It’s not always the case that the most interesting playoff matchup features the two most flawed teams in the field—but such is the case here. The Rockets are missing a few key contributors and their offensive plan largely comes down to “give the ball to Durant” which offsets how awesome the defense can be. The Lakers, of course, are just trying to survive long enough for either of their two stars to get back from injury and will search for answers wherever they can be found outside of James.

There's a good chance this series will come down to crunchtime execution, which has long been The King’s comfort zone. Houston, on the other hand, must play every game with the desperation required to avoid any late-game clutch situations after struggling all season to score against a set defense with the game on the line.

Ultimately there isn’t enough scoring in purple and gold outside of James. The Rockets’ defense can make life utterly miserable for the best scorers in the NBA. What are they going to do to Marcus Smart or Deandre Ayton when they get pressed into No. 2 option duties? It will not be pretty but Houston has a big advantage here and not even LeBron himself is enough to make up for it. Not this version of LeBron, anyway.

Pick: Rockets in 5 (-600, +290)

Tyler Lauletta

Screw it, it’s fun to believe. The March run from the Lakers made me excited enough to think they might really have a shot to make a run this year, only for the Luka and Reaves injuries to derail the entire system. Now it’s LeBron and a ragtag team of heroes joining together to battle Team Rockets as best they can.

No matter what happens in this series, we are being blessed with another playoff showdown between LeBron and Durant, which is worth celebrating. I’m going to believe that the showdown delivers, and that LeBron, having just seen Steph Curry put on a vintage performance of his own, proves he’s still got one more run left in the tank.

Pick: Lakers in 7 (+425, +850)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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