Rockets vs. Pelicans Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 6

The Houston Rockets are in danger of slipping further in the Western Conference, as they’ve lost three games in a row and are now the No. 5 seed entering Thursday’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans.

Houston’s slide has coincided with Fred VanVleet’s ankle injury, and the veteran guard has been ruled out again on Thursday night. With the Golden State Warriors just three games behind Houston in the standings, every game matters down the stretch of the 2024-25 regular season.

New Orleans is firmly out of the playoff mix (it has just 17 wins all season), but the Pelicans are 5-5 in their last 10 despite a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game on Tuesday. Zion Williamson has played well for the Pels as of late, and he will look to lead them to a home upset against a division foe on Thursday.

Let’s break down the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Rockets vs. Pelicans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Rockets -4.5 (-112)
Pelicans +4.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Rockets: -192
Pelicans: +160

Total

230 (Over -110/Under -110)

Rockets vs. Pelicans How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 6
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Smoothie King Center
How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports New Orleans, Space City Network
Rockets record: 37-25
Pelicans record: 17-45

Rockets vs. Pelicans Injury Reports

Rockets Injury Report

N’Faly Dante – out
Jack McVeigh – out
Fred VanVleet – out
David Roddy – out

Pelicans Injury Report

Dejounte Murray – out
Keion Brooks Jr. – out
Herb Jones – out
Lester Quinones – out
Antonio Reeves – out
Brandon Boston – out

Rockets vs. Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bets

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jabari Smith Jr. OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-154)

Even though he’s been back and forth between a starter and the bench since returning from a fractured hand, Jabari Smith Jr. is hitting the glass at a high rate.

Over his last seven games, Smith averaged 7.6 rebounds per game, clearing this prop line in six of those matchups. It’s hard to find a much better matchup for Smith, as the Pelicans rank just 27th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game this season.

New Orleans Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bet

Trey Murphy III OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points, why I’m buying Trey Murphy III in the prop market:

New Orleans Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III is having a great season in the 2024-25 campaign, and I’m eyeing him in the prop market tonight.

While many may expect Murphy to be a points prop or 3-point prop target, he’s actually been stuffing the stat sheet in other ways.

Murphy is averaging 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game for the season, but those numbers are on the rise as of late. The former first-round pick is averaging 5.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game since Feb. 1, clearing 9.5 rebounds and assists in nine of his last 13 matchups.

Over his last three games, Murphy has 11, 12 and 11 rebounds and assists.

Rockets vs. Pelicans Prediction and Pick

New Orleans is coming off a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, but I’m still buying it as a home underdog against the Rockets.

Houston has dropped three games in a row, posting a net rating of -1.3 over its last 10 games. This is a major step back from where Houston was before the All-Star break, and one has to wonder if this young team is finally regressing to the mean. Plus, the Rockets have struggled without Fred VanVleet, going 7-9 in the 16 games that he’s missed.

New Orleans, on the other hand, is in the midst of one of its best stretches of the season, winning five of its last 10 games (it only has 17 wins on the season), while ranking 20th in the league in net rating over that stretch.

The Pelicans are also 10-9-1 against the spread as home dogs this season. I’ll take the points with Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and CJ McCollum all healthy and expected to play tonight.

Pick: Pelicans +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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