Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open First Round

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz makes his return to the national stage on Monday afternoon, as he’ll begin his run at the 2026 U.S. Open against Roman Safiullin.

Alcaraz won the Australian Open earlier this year before a wrist injury caused him to miss five months of action. With Jannik Sinner injured and missing the U.S. Open, Alcaraz has a chance to win this event for the second year in a row and re-establish himself as the best player in the world.

Oddsmakers have set Alcaraz as a massive favorite in his return to the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, as he’ll take on Safiullin for the third time in his career.

Safiullin has made the second round in the U.S. Open in three straight years, and he knocked off Alcaraz in straight sets in their first-ever meeting back in 2023. This year, the Russian is just 3-3, so he’s participated even less than Alcaraz, despite reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon.

Alcaraz already has two U.S. Open titles under his belt, but is he healthy enough to add a third?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history and my prediction for this first-round match on Monday afternoon.

Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Roman Safiullin: +365
Carlos Alcaraz: -528

Total

36.5 (Over -115/Under -125)

Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 31
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz History and U.S. Open Performance

Roman Safiullin

Safiullin beat Alcaraz at the ATP Masters 1000 Paris in 2023, but he then lost to him in straight sets in 2024 in the Paris Olympics.

The 29-year-old was injured in his last appearance at the U.S. Open and missed several months, wondering if he’d ever play professional tennis again. He then dealt with a hip issue at the 2026 French Open before bouncing back to make the fourth round at Wimbledon.

Still, Safiullin is a major underdog against Alcaraz, who is +250 (the favorite) to win this tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz has some interesting results at the U.S. Open in his career.

He won the event back in 2022 before winning again in 2025 and has made at least the quarterfinals in all but one of his showings. That came in 2024 when he was eliminated in the second round in shocking fashion.

So, Alcaraz has a ton of expectations in his return, and oddsmakers seem to think he’ll be able to make quick work of Safiullin. This year, Alcaraz is 22-3 in 25 matches.

Roman Safiullin vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Pick

Since we have seen Alcaraz compete in months, I’m going to play things safe with this first-round bet.

I could take him at plus money to win in straight sets, but Safiullin does have a win over Alcaraz in his career and may be able to steal a set on Monday. In addition to that, it’s worth noting that Safiullin had his second-best Grand Slam showing ever at Wimbledon this year. So, he’s entering this match in pretty strong form.

Alcaraz has some really strong finishes in the U.S. Open, winning the event twice since 2022. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself on a deep run in this tournament. But, there’s a chance there is some rust on Monday.

So, I’m going to take him to cover the set spread at -1.5 (-225), which gives him the cushion to lose a set and still hit this bet. If Alcaraz wins 3-0 or 3-1, bettors will walk away with a win, even though the payout isn’t as exciting as taking him to win in straight sets.

Pick: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-225 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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