Royals vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 30

The Minnesota Twins are a 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League heading into Thursday’s series finale against the Kansas City Royals, who hold the worst record in the AL Central.

These teams split the first two games of this series, with Kansas City pulling out a 4-0 shutout win on Wednesday. That dropped the Twins back under .500 this season, and they’d love to turn that around ahead of their weekend series against another wild card contender in the Seattle Mariners.

Minnesota will have to do it without All-Star outfielder Byron Buxton, who was placed on the injured list with a hip issue on Wednesday. Buxton has been in and out of the lineup with the injury in recent months, and his absence is a pretty big blow to the Twins’ offense.

Thursday’s pitching matchup features Kansas City left-hander Noah Cameron (4.93 ERA) going head-to-head with Twins righty Bailey Ober (4.56 ERA). The Twins have won nine of Ober’s 15 starts this season despite some shaky advanced numbers.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s AL Central battle.

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Royals +1.5 (-168)
Twins -1.5 (+139)

Moneyline

Royals: +119
Twins: -143

Total

9.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Royals vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Kansas City: Noah Cameron (5-8, 4.93 ERA)
Minnesota: Bailey Ober (7-3, 4.56 ERA)

Royals vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 30
Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): Royals.TV/Twins.TV
Royals record: 46-63
Twins record: 54-55

Royals vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Bailey Ober UNDER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-132)

Ober started the season strong for the Twins, posting a 3.55 ERA in his first seven starts, clearing 16.5 outs recorded in five consecutive outings to end April.

Since then, he’s missed some time on the injured list and only has one outing (a complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins) where he’s recorded 17 or more outs. In that eight-start stretch, Ober has a 5.44 ERA and has given up more hits (49) than innings pitched (43.0). This month, since coming off the injured list, he’s thrown 14.1 innings across three starts, only reaching 16 outs in one of them.

The Royals are far from an elite offense, but the Twins have kept Ober under 90 pitches in each of his starts since returning and he’s only thrown 90 pitches one time in his last eight appearances.

I think that we’re getting a bit of a gift with this line all the way up at 16.5.

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

The Twins are two games over .500 at home this season, and they’ve actually fared pretty well in Ober’s starts despite the fact that he ranks in the 37th percentile in expected ERA and the 38th percentile in expected BAA.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in MLB in bullpen ERA, so I’m going to trust Ober, who is the superior starter, in this matchup.

Cameron has led the Royals to just a 5-15 record in his outings this season, allowing four or more runs in nine of his appearances. On top of that, he ranks in the 20th percentile in expected ERA and the 14th percentile in expected BAA. The Royals do have two wins against the Twins with Cameron on the mound this season, but I don’t see that happening again, especially on the road.

The Royals are just 20-36 on the road this season, and they rank 22nd in runs scored, 20th in Weighted Runs Created Plus and 19th in OPS this season.

I’ll take a shot on Minnesota winning this series finale.

Pick: Twins Moneyline (-143 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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