Royals vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, April 14

The New York Yankees have been up and down in the 2025 season, and they have a rematch of last season’s ALDS on Monday when they host the Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City is sitting at .500 on the season, but it could be in a great spot to pull off an upset win with Seth Lugo (3.24 ERA) on the mound against Yankees veteran Carlos Carrasco (7.71 ERA).

After a slow start to the 2025 season, Kansas City has won six of its last 10 games to get back to .500. Can it stay hot at Yankee Stadium?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this playoff rematch on Monday.

Royals vs. Yankees Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Royals +1.5 (-166)
Yankees -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

Royals: +120
Yankees: -142

Total

9 (Over -105/Under -115)

Royals vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Kansas City: Seth Lugo (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
New York: Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 7.71 ERA)

Royals vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 14
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
Royals record: 8-8
Yankees record: 8-7

Royals vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Carlos Carrasco OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB props column – Painting Corners – why Carrasco is a fade candidate tonight:

Carrasco has struggled mightily in the 2025 season, allowing 16 hits, 10 earned runs, and four home runs across just three starts. He’s given up at least three runs in each of his outings, so it’s surprising to see him set at even money to do that again on Monday.

The main reason may be Kansas City’s struggles on offense, it ranks just 27th in OPS and 25th in runs scored in 2025, but Carrasco has posted an ERA of 6.80, 5.64 and now 7.71 in each of his last three seasons. He’s simply not the same pitcher he used to be.

Unless the Yankees have an even quicker hook than usual with the veteran, he’s likely to give up a few runs on Monday night.

Royals vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

I cannot trust the Yankees with Carrasco on the mound this season.

The veteran righty has allowed nearly as many earned runs as innings pitched, and the Yankees needed to score 20 and nine runs in the two starts of his that they won.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is 2-1 in Lugo’s starts, and the righty has given up three or fewer earned runs in each of his outings.

The Yankees started the season hot at the dish, but they are just 22nd in MLB in OPS over the last week. If the New York bats remain cool, they are impossible to trust with Carrasco struggling to open 2025.

Pick: Royals Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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