Saints vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

The Saints are road underdogs against the Falcons in NFL Week 18 action. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

The NFL Week 18 game between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons was set to be a rivalry showdown between two teams who are already eliminated from postseason contention, but now, after a few twists of fate, it could be a game with major playoff implications, just none for the two teams playing in it.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeat the Carolina Panthers on Saturday, the winner of the NFC South will be hilariously determined by the winner of the Saints vs. Falcons game on Sunday. If the Saints win, the Buccaneers will win the division due to having the advantage over the Panthers in a two-way tie. If the Falcons win, they will tie the Buccaneers and Panthers atop the division at 8-9, which would result in the Panthers winning based on the three-way tiebreaker rules.

Of course, all of that could become a moot point if the Panthers win on Saturday. With that being said, this will be a rivalry matchup between two teams who hate each other at the very least, so let's dive into the odds and my best bet.

Saints vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Saints +3 (-110)
• Falcons -3 (-110)

Moneyline

• Saints +150
• Falcons -164

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-115)
• UNDER 43.5 (-105)

Saints vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 4
• Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Saints Record: 6-10
• Falcons Record: 7-9

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The Saints area 5-0 ATS in their last five games
• The UNDER is 10-2 in the Saints' last 12 games
• The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played in Atlanta
• Falcons are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games
• The OVER is 4-1 in the Falcons' last five games
• The Falcons are 2-5 straight up in their last seven games vs. NFC South opponents

Saints vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Saints Injury Report

• Mason Tipton, WR - Questionable
• Cesar Ruiz, G - Questionable
• Zaire Mitchell-Paden, TE - Questionable
• Alvin Kamara, RB - Questionable
• Bryan Breese, DT - Questionable

Falcons Injury Report

• Tyrone Wheatley Jr., OT - IR
• Mike Hughes, CB - Questionable
• Brandon Dorlus, DT - Questionable
• Mike Ford Jr., CB - Questionable
• Josh Woods, LB - Questionable

Saints vs. Falcons Key Player to Watch

• Tyler Shough, QB - New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL in recent weeks, and as a result, has seen his odds to be named the Offensive Rookie of the Year skyrocket. His odds were as long as 100-1 just over a month ago, and now he's listed at +145 at FanDuel, behind only Tet McMillan at -130. If he can have another strong performance and lead the Saints to an upset win against the Falcons, don't be surprised if he's the betting favorite to win the award next week.

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm backing the Saints as underdogs in this NFC South finale:

The Saints have become a legitimately good football team in the second half of the season, unfortunately, it's been too little too late for their playoff hopes. Since Week 10, their defense ranks second in opponent EPA and first in opponent success rate. Their offense has also been solid behind rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, ranking 19th in EPA per play and success rate since Week 10.

The Falcons are limping into the offseason behind several injuries, and despite beating the Saints a few weeks ago, New Orleans has hit its stride in recent games and will be a tougher challenge for Atlanta in the rematch. I'll take the points in what I expect to be a close game.

Pick: Saints +3 (-110) via FanDuel

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