San Francisco 49ers Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Can San Francisco Reach Last Year’s Heights?)

Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers put together one of the more impressive seasons in 2025, battling some huge injuries to win 12 games and make the playoffs. Brock Purdy missed a ton of time with turf toe, yet Mac Jones stepped in and ran Shanahan’s offense extremely well to keep the team’s season alive.

While it ended with a 41-6 playoff loss to Seattle in the divisional round, the 49ers have a lot of positives to bring into the 2026 season, and the betting market has them with the 11th best Super Bowl odds (+1900).

The NFC West is loaded in the 2026 season, with oddsmakers expecting Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles all to win 10 or more games for the second year in a row.

Can the 49ers build on the 12-5 season and playoff berth from 2025?

Here’s a look at their win total projection and a few schedule notes ahead of the 2026 campaign.

San Francisco 49ers Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

9.5 (Over -146/Under +120)
10.5 (Over +125/Under -150)

DraftKings has an interesting couple of betting lines for the 49ers win total, as they are heavily favored to finish with more than nine wins but also heavily favored to finish with less than 11 wins. So, it’s pretty clear that the market views this squad as a 10-win team.

Health is going to be the biggest obstacle for this veteran team, as last year’s squad dealt with a ton of injuries, including one that kept Brock Purdy sidelined for a good chunk of the regular season.

Already, we’ve seen the 49ers lose Ricky Pearsall for the year, and they brought back Deebo Samuel to help fix their issues at the receiver position.

Fred Warner should be back and ready to go for Week 1 while Nick Bosa and George Kittle are working their way back after dealing with season-ending injuries in 2025. Despite all of that, the team still finished with a 12-5 record and Mac Jones showed that he can step in and lead the team to wins if Purdy is forced to miss time.

Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and the 49ers do benefit from the strength of the NFC West, as they’ll play a third-place schedule in 2026.

Yes, they have four games that will be against either the Los Angeles Rams or Seattle Seahawks, but there are only three other games on the 49ers schedule against playoff teams from 2025 (Denver, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers).

I think that puts this group in a great spot to make the playoffs, and the 10-win mark seems very achievable when looking at some of the 49ers’ opponents. I counted six games that they’ll likely be pretty sizable favorites in, including multiple road games:

Week 2: Home vs. Miami
Week 3: Home vs. Arizona
Week 7: @ Atlanta
Week 9 (off a bye): Home vs. Las Vegas
Week 13: @ NYG
Week 18: @ Arizona

The injuries will always be a story with this aging team, but I do believe in the talent on both sides of the ball, especially after last season’s gritty performance to make the playoffs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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