Seahawks vs. Broncos Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 6 (Bet on Jaxon Smith-Njigba)

A pair of elite defenses are set to face off in Week 6, as the Denver Broncos host the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.

Both of these teams made their respective conference championship games in the 2025 season, and they’re off to 3-2 starts in 2026.

Denver has yet to lose a game at home in 2026, but it’s an underdog in this matchup with three key defenders in cornerbacks Riley Moss and Pat Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga all injured. Surtain and Moss did not play in Denver’s close win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.

That could open things up in the prop market for this Seattle offense, as Sam Darnold looks to get on track after throwing five picks in his last three starts. These teams are No. 2 (Seattle) and No. 11 (Denver) in EPA/Play on defense this season, so this could be a good game to bet on some UNDERs in the prop market.

Still, there are a bunch of intriguing playmakers in this matchup, including reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Can he have a big game against a banged-up Denver secondary?

Plus, the Broncos’ offense is looking to get back on track after a slow start to the season, especially in the passing game.

Here’s a breakdown of my three favorite props for this Week 6 matchup, starting with a play for JSN.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Seahawks vs. Broncos

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bo Nix UNDER 202.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Jaylen Waddle UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-107)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Smith-Njigba has put up some huge numbers through the first five weeks of the 2026 season, clearing 100 yards in four of those games.

Overall, the star wideout has been targeted 50 times by Seattle’s quarterbacks, reeling in 37 passes for 583 yards and seven scores. He should see a bunch of targets in Week 6 against a Denver secondary that is dealing with a bunch of injuries early in the season.

The Broncos are fifth in the NFL in EPA/Pass, but Sam Darnold has locked in on JSN all season long, so I don’t expect his target share to waver. This prop line is pretty high, but the reigning OPOY is averaging over seven catches and 100 yards per game in 2026.

Bo Nix UNDER 202.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has three games with under 200 passing yards already this season, throwing for just 123 yards in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.

The Denver offense has not been good, ranking 24th in EPA/Play and 22nd in EPA/Pass. Meanwhile, Seattle is No. 2 in EPA/Pass on defense, allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL in 2026.

Brock Purdy – the MVP favorite – was held to just 189 passing yards in Week 5 against Seattle, so I don’t see Nix having a better game. The Denver quarterback ranks 28th in EPA/Play and 32nd in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps played this season.

I simply cannot trust him against arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially on a short week.

Jaylen Waddle UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-107)

This play for Broncos receiver Jaylen Waddle goes hand-in-hand with Nix’s struggles in 2026.

Waddle has been targeted just 31 times in five games, reeling in 18 passes for 204 yards and a score. He had eight catches for 138 yards in Week 2 against Jacksonville, but other than that, Waddle has been pretty bad in the 2026 season.

A former first-round pick, Waddle was acquired by Denver in a trade with Miami in the offseason, but he has yet to establish a rapport with Nix, catching four or fewer passes in three of his games. In fact, he has two or fewer catches in three games, including a two-catch showing in Week 5.

Seattle’s defense is elite against the pass, and I don’t expect much from a Denver team that is 24th in EPA/Play this season.

I’ll fade Waddle since a four-catch game would actually be one of his best games this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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