Sharp vs. Public Betting Splits for March Madness Final Four (Bettors Expect UConn Win)

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The Final Four is here! Four teams are left with a chance to win this year's National Championship.
The UConn Huskies will battle it out with the Illinois Fighting Illini, and the Arizona Wildcats will face the Michigan Wolverines. The winners will face off on Monday night for all the marbles.
If you have yet to place your bets for the two Final Four games, this article may help you out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released its betting splits for both semifinal games, so let's take a look at which side the public is betting in the coming days.
All figures below will be the percentage of the total amount of dollars bet, not the total number of individual bets.
March Madness Final Four Betting Splits
Texas vs. Purdue Betting Splits
- Moneyline: UConn +110 (57%)
- Spread: UConn +1.5 (57%)
- Total: OVER 139.5 (78%)
The dollars bet on the side in this game are relatively even, with UConn getting 57% of dollars on both the moneyline and the total. It is a bit rare to see the underdog getting more money on the spread with it set at just 1.5 points. As you see below, when it's a short spread in a basketball game, you'll typically see more money on the underdog on the moneyline, but more moneyline on the favorite when it comes to the spread.
The OVER in this game is the most heavily bet side or total in the Final Four, with 78% of the money backing this being a high-scoring affair.
Michigan vs. Arizona Betting Splits
- Moneyline: Arizona +105 (63%)
- Spread: Michigan -1.5 (53%)
- Total: OVER 157.5 (70%)
The splits in this game are more typical for a game that has a short spread. 63% of the money bet on the moneyline is on the Wildcats at +105, while 53% of the money bet on the spread is on Michigan -1.5. Most people who want to bet on Arizona will usually just opt for the moneyline to get slightly longer odds, hoping the final score doesn't result in a one-point win for Michigan. On the other side of things, people who want to bet on the Wolverines will likely opt for the spread instead of the moneyline for the same reason, getting longer odds and hoping the Wolverines can manage to win by at least two points.
The majoriy of bets on the total are on the OVER.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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