SI Betting’s NBA Playoff First-Round Playoff Series Predictions (Bet Knicks in 7, Spurs, C’s to Roll)

The NBA Playoffs are finally here!

The first-round of the playoff begins with four matchups on Saturday, and we have some intriguing series to bet on, with only one higher seed – the Los Angeles Lakers – set as an underdog.

Eastern Conference

No. 8 Orlando Magic vs. No. 1 Detroit Pistons
No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 2 Boston Celtics
No. 6 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 3 New York Knicks
No. 5 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference

No. 8 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder
No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs
No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets
No. 5 Houston Rockets vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers

Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver and Boston are the only four teams at shorter than 10/1 to win the NBA Finals, but there is no guarantee that all of those teams end up in the conference finals. In fact, a defending champion has not made it out of the second round of the playoffs since the Golden State Warriors in 2019. So, OKC has some history it’ll have to shatter in the 2026 postseason.

I know you’re here for the predictions, so here’s how I’m betting on every single first-round matchup in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Magic vs. Pistons Prediction

Orlando played arguably the best game it has played all season long in Friday’s play-in win over the Charlotte Hornets, but the Pistons are a much more physical team that can battle with the size the Magic have in their starting lineup.

Detroit finished the regular season with the No. 2 defensive rating and the No. 2 net rating in the NBA, though these teams did split their four regular-season matchups.

The Pistons have the best player in this series in Cade Cunningham, and their main concern this postseason is their lack of outside shooting. That shouldn't come back to bite them against an Orlando team that is 25th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage.

The Magic have fallen short of expectations all season long, and I don’t expect that to change in this first-round matchup.

Pick: Pistons in 5 (-500, +260)

76ers vs. Celtics Prediction

Boston is the clear favorite to win the Eastern Conference in the latest betting odds, and Jayson Tatum’s return to the lineup has gone about as well as the C’s could have asked for this season.

After finishing in the top five in the NBA in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating, Boston is a massive favorite in this first-round matchup with a likely short-handed Philadelphia team.

Joel Embiid (appendectomy) missed the play-in win over Orlando, and it’s hard to see him returning early in this series, especially since the average time lost for NBA players that have an appendectomy is over three weeks. Philly was just 21-23 in the games Embiid missed in the regular season, and it finished 18th in net rating (-0.1).

Tyrese Maxey may do enough to steal a game for the 76ers, but Boston is the far better team.

Pick: Celtics in 5 (-900, +210)

Hawks vs. Knicks Prediction

New York took two of the three games between these teams during the regular season, but Atlanta closed out the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the NBA – partially due to a fairly easy schedule after the All-Star break. The Hawks went from the No. 10 spot to the No. 6 spot in the standings, though they finished the regular season just 23-30 against teams that were .500 or better.

Atlanta has a lot of defenders it can throw at Jalen Brunson (mainly Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker), making this a tougher matchup for the New York offense than it likely hoped for in the first round. Still, I’m taking the Knicks to win this series – even if it does go into a sixth or seventh game.

The Knicks struggled on the road all season long, but they dominated in close games, going 9-4 in games decided by three or fewer points while also ranking third in the NBA in clutch-time offensive rating. The Hawks were just 17th in offensive rating in clutch games (games within five points in the final five minutes).

At the end of the day, I’ll take Brunson as a closer in a playoff series over CJ McCollum and Jalen Johnson, especially since the Knicks’ defense made strides (finishing seventh in the league in defensive rating) after a rough stretch following its NBA Cup win.

Pick: Knicks in 7 (-275, +360)

Raptors vs. Cavs Prediction

These teams haven’t faced each other since November, so I’m throwing out Toronto’s 3-0 record against Cleveland in the regular season.

The Raptors went just 2-16 against the top-three seeds in each conference during the regular season, and they were a .500 team after a 14-5 start, going 31-31 the rest of the way. Toronto does have the No. 5 defensive rating in the NBA, but it has some shooting questions on offense.

Cleveland has plenty of questions in the Donovan Mitchell era, especially with James Harden now in the fold. The Cavs have not made it out of the second round with Mitchell, and they were just 18th in the league in defensive rating after the All-Star break. There is a world where the Cavs’ inability to get stops could cost them in this series.

However, Mitchell is the best player in this series, and Cleveland’s offense was the fifth-best in the league after the break. It would be a catastrophe for the Cavs to lose this series, and ultimately I don’t trust Toronto’s offense enough to win four games against a quality team. The Raptors were just 22-30 against teams .500 or better in the regular season.

Pick: Cavs in 5 (-550, +240)

Phoenix Suns vs. Thunder Prediction

The defending champs had a massive second half of the season, holding off the San Antonio Spurs for the No. 1 seed in the West.

OKC has swept the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies in back-to-back seasons in the first round, and it’s heavily favored to do the same against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns won two of the five meetings between these teams in the regular season, though the final meeting (on April 12) was the final game of the regular season where the Thunder rested a ton of players.

The three wins that OKC had against Phoenix were by four, 49 and 27 points.

After finishing with the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA in the regular season, I expect the Thunder to make quick work of a Suns team that can defend (ninth in defensive rating), but struggles on offense (17th in offensive rating). The Suns simply lack shot creation after Devin Booker and Jalen Green, and I don’t expect Green will duplicate his massive play-in showing against Golden State when he’s being guarded by Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and OKC’s plethora of elite perimeter defenders.

Pick: Thunder in 4 (-3000, +130)

Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction

Deni Avdija and the Portland Trail Blazers made a huge run at the end of the regular season, ranking eighth in net rating over their final 15 games, before winning the No. 8 vs. No. 7 matchup against the Phoenix Suns in the play-in tournament.

Yet, they are +1000 underdogs against the 62-win San Antonio Spurs – and for good reason. San Antonio has been the best team in the NBA since the All-Star break, going 24-4 with the best net rating in the league. The Spurs also went 32-8 at home, giving them a massive advantage in the first two games of the series.

Oddsmakers have the Spurs favored to sweep this series, but I do think Portland has a chance to steal one game in this matchup. The Blazers were 2-1 against the Spurs in the regular season, though Victor Wembanyama missed all three of those games.

San Antonio should roll in this matchup to set up a potential date with Denver in the Western Conference semifinals.

Pick: Spurs in 5 (-2000, +200)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

The most important Denver Nuggets stat this season doesn’t involve Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. It’s the fact that Denver was 27-9 when Aaron Gordon was in the lineup and just 27-19 when he was out.

Gordon looks healthy heading into the playoffs, and that’s a great sign for a Denver team that went 3-1 against Minnesota in the regular season. The Nuggets have the No. 1 offensive rating in the league, and with Jokic, Murray and Gordon all on their floor, they have an offensive rating of 131.1 and a net rating of +19.9. In all honesty, I think a healthy Denver team may be able to produce the best five-man lineup in the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves limped to the finish after the All-Star break with Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels missing time. Minnesota finished 23-25 against teams that were .500 or better, and it dropped to 13th in offensive rating by the end of the season.

Denver’s defense is a concern (21st in defensive rating), but if Gordon is able to remain in the lineup, I’m not betting against Nikola Jokic in a first-round series.

Pick: Nuggets in 6 (-350, +450)

Rockets vs. Lakers Prediction

Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are “out indefinitely,” according to J.J. Redick, making it really hard to see a path to a Lakers upsetting Houston in the first round.

LeBron James has played at a genuinely absurd level for a 41-year-old, but the lack of shot creation around him is a major issue against a Houston team that closed the regular season strong, finishing eighth in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and sixth in net rating. Houston’s clutch offense (20th in the NBA) could be an issue against the Lakers (No. 1 in clutch offense), but will L.A. be able to hang around enough to even force a few clutch games in this series?

Even with Houston having some serious shooting concerns, I simply can’t back the Lakers to win four times if Doncic and Reaves don’t play. James may be able to get the Lakers a game or two, but L.A. needs to hold out hope that at least one of the star guards will return before the end of the series. I think Houston is able to close things out before that happens.

Pick: Rockets in 6 (-575, +250)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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