Sky vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, May 15

Rickea Jackson and the Chicago Sky are off to a 2-0 start in the 2026 season, and they’ll look to add to that record as road underdogs on Friday against the Phoenix Mercury.

Phoenix blew out the Las Vegas Aces to open the 2026 season, but it has lost two games in a row to the Golden State Valkyries and Minnesota Lynx. Phoenix lost star forward Satou Sabally in free agency, and it may not be a top-tier contender in the West in 2026 after making the Finals in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Sky revamped their roster, signing Skylar Diggins, trading for Jackson and trading away Ariel Atkins and Angel Reese in the offseason.

Chicago is off to a fast start, and it remains without three rotation players in DiJonai Carrington, Azura Stevens and Courtney Vandersloot in this matchup. Can the Sky still keep things close against Kahleah Copper and company?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet, and my prediction for Friday’s action.

Sky vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sky +4.5 (-115)
Mercury -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Sky: +154
Mercury: -185

Total

166.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Sky vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 15
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): ION, WNBA League Pass
Sky record: 2-0
Mercury record: 1-2

Sky vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Sky Injury Report

DiJonai Carrington – out
Azura Stevens – out
Courtney Vandersloot – out

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb – out

Sky vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Sky Best WNBA Prop Bet

Rickea Jackson 20+ Points and Rebounds (-174)

Jackson is off to fast start in the 2026 season, averaging 18.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game for the Sky, even though she’s shooting just 34.4 percent from the field.

For her career, Jackson shoots 43.6 percent from the field, so she’s due to pick up in that department in the coming weeks. In two games, Jackson has combined for 26 and 23 points and rebounds, making her an interesting target at this discounted number.

The Sky wing has clearly been the focal point of the offense, taking 14 and 18 shots in her first two games while getting to the free-throw line 16 times. She’s going to have a real chance to clear this number in points alone, and she also has at least five boards in both games.

For her career, Jackson averages 3.6 rebounds per night, so she seems to be taking a step forward in that department in 2026.

Sky vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

These teams both love to slow games down, ranking 14th (Chicago) and 12th (Phoenix) in pace in the 2026 season.

That makes the UNDER an interesting bet on Friday night, especially since the Sky allowed just 63 points in a win over Golden State in their last matchup.

Chicago is allowing just 73.0 points per game – No. 2 in the WNBA – so far in the 2026 season.

Meanwhile, the Mercury are eighth in defensive rating (Chicago is second) and have given up 66, 95 and 88 points in three games. After holding the Aces to just 66 points in their opener ,the Mercury have taken a step back on the defensive end.

Still, I think this total is too high if both of these teams end up slowing the pace and playing more in the half court.

Pick: UNDER 166.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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