Sparks vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Saturday, Aug. 15

Back-to-back losses have knocked the Washington Mystics back in the WNBA standings, but they’re favored at home on Saturday night in a matchup with the Los Angeles Sparks.

Sonia Citron and Co. are still one of the hottest teams in the WNBA, winning seven of their last 10 games, but they’ve struggled against the spread when favored at home this season.

Does that open the door for the Sparks to pull off an upset?

Los Angeles has won just two of its last 10 games, falling completely out of the playoff race. The Sparks are in a rebuild once again, as they traded away Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline after she missed a large chunk of the season with an injury.

L.A. lost to the New York Liberty (but covered the spread) on the road earlier this week, and it’s aiming to snap a three-game skid on Saturday night.

The Mystics, on the other hand, need a win to keep pace with several other teams in the playoff conversation that want to secure a top-four seed.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this showdown on Saturday night.

Sparks vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sparks +5.5 (-108)
Mystics -5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Sparks: +180
Mystics: -218

Total

173.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sparks vs. Mystics How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Aug. 15
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: CareFirst Arena
How to Watch (TV): MNMT, Spectrum Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
Sparks record: 12-21
Mystics record: 19-14

Sparks vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Sparks Injury Report

Cameron Brink -- questionable
Monique Akoa Makani -- out

Mystics Injury Report

None to report

Sparks vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bet

Dearica Hamby OVER 13.5 Points (-134)

The Sparks may have traded away Plum, but they still have a three-time All-Star in Dearica Hamby to help carry the offensive burden.

Washington is No. 2 in the league in opponent points per game this season, but this prop is set well below Hamby’s season average (15.3 points per game). The Sparks forward had 14 points on nine shots against the Mystics earlier this season, and she’s scored at least 14 points in 13 of her last 17 games, averaging 16.8 points per game during that stretch.

Hamby isn’t a high-usage player (she’s taking just 11.4 shots per game during this 17-game run), but she’s efficient, knocking down 56.8 percent of her attempts from the field.

I think this prop line is a bit of an overreaction to Washington’s defense, especially since Hamby has a bigger role with Plum now in Phoenix.

Sparks vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

The Mystics are one of the best teams in the WNBA against the spread as underdogs this season, but they’re just 2-5 against the spread when favored at home.

That is a troublesome trend, especially against a Lynx team that is 9-4 against the spread as a road underdog, covering at the second-highest rate in the WNBA.

Washington’s defense is elite this season, and that could be the deciding factor in who wins this game, but the Sparks have the offense to at least hang around. L.A. is seventh in the WNBA in points per game and ninth in offensive rating while the Mystics clock in at No. 14 in both of those categories.

The Sparks play a very different style than Washington, as they love to push the tempo (No. 3 in pace this season) while the Mystics currently play at the second-slowest pace in the WNBA.

Washington may end up winning this game, but the team’s lack of offense makes it hard for it to cover a spread of this size. I think the Sparks hang around on Sunday, especially after they nearly upset New York (a much better offensive team) earlier this week.

Pick: Sparks +5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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