Sportsbook Insiders: Gap Between Bears and Packers in Latest Odds Is Larger Than You Think Entering Week 5

A rivalry matchup highlights a major Sunday slate in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, as the Chicago Bears go on the road to take on the Green Bay Packers.

These teams played a wild playoff game during the 2025 season, and they both entered this year with playoff expectations. However, the first four weeks of the season have seen these squads go in different directions, even though Green Bay is just one game back of Chicago in the standings.

“We're really low on the Packers this year,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “They may be 2-2, but their wins have not been impressive at all – beating the Jets and really needing luck to beat the Jets, and then the Bucs – a depleted Bucs team – they did not look particularly great against as well.

“And their losses, both of them between the Minnesota loss and the Atlanta loss, were quite shocking. So, we're pushing them more towards the bottom third in our rankings, and the Bears, even with Tyson Bagent, still look like a pretty competent team.”

Green Bay is an underdog in the latest odds at the best NFL betting sites on Sunday, which is a pretty historic line. This is just the first time since 2006 that the Bears are favored at Lambeau Field, and it’s only the third time that has happened in the last 30 years, per Stathead.

It’s pretty shocking to see Chicago snap this long streak of being an underdog at Lambeau, especially since starting quarterback Caleb Williams (hamstring) won’t play in Week 5.

“The Bears have shown that they can be just as efficient on offense with or without Caleb Williams on the field, and that has been reflected in this week's lines against Green Bay,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “Green Bay has also shown significant weaknesses on both sides of the ball, which is why we see the Bears rated more than four points better than the Packers in both teams' current form.”

Tyson Bagent will get the start for Chicago in this matchup, where it is currently favored by 1.5 points. That line has come down from earlier in the week when the Bears were as much as a three-point favorite at some sportsbooks.

Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers to get an understanding of just how big the gap is between the Bears and Packers at this point in the 2026 season.

“On a neutral field, I would say even with Bagent starting, this is probably closer to a 6-, 6.5-point spread,” Gour said. “Lambeau Field is one of the biggest home-field advantages in the league, and it does say a lot for the Bears to be a favorite without their starting quarterback in Lambeau.

“And it kind of brings to the point, if Caleb were healthy, I could easily see this being a double-digit spread on a neutral field just with what Caleb has brought to the offense to this point. It would be a pretty sizable jump even past Bagent and what he's been able to do so far.”

The Packers’ offense is nowhere in the same tier as the Bears this season, ranking 25th in EPA/Play (Chicago is ninth), 26th in success rate (Chicago is ninth) and 15th in yards per play (Chicago is 10th).

No team in the NFL has fewer rushing yards than the Packers (232) through four weeks.

“Green Bay has had a very slow start to the season and Chicago hasn't missed much of a beat with all three quarterbacks who have started,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “The lack of a running game and OL depth has hurt GB.”

Chicago going 2-0 without Williams, and dominating the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets in the process, has certainly improved how the team is viewed in the betting market. Chicago also enters Week 5 with the No. 5 defense in EPA/Play this season, even though they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards per play in the NFL.

While Gour has the Bears as a significantly better team than Green Bay, DraftKings believes the difference is a little closer.

“The Bears' rating is rising swiftly with the last two weeks showing the QB may not matter as much in a Ben Johnson offense,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “With the Packers playing poorly and injuries piling up, Chicago’s rating is 3.5 to 4 points higher than Green Bay.”

Both of these teams are currently trailing the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North standings, but Chicago (-170) has much better odds to make the playoffs than the Packers (+230) through four weeks.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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