Spurs vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 19

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs currently hold just the No. 12 seed in the Western Conference after back-to-back losses to the Memphis Grizzlies.

While the Spurs aren’t out of the playoff chase, they’re facing an uphill battle in a conference where every loss could drop you a few slots. There is a logjam from the No. 4 seed to the No. 12 seed, as only 5.5 games separate those teams and only 10 can make at least the play-in tournament.

On Sunday, the Spurs find themselves as road underdogs against the Miami Heat, who welcomed Jimmy Butler back from a suspension on Friday night. Unfortunately, Miami proceeded to lose by 20 points to the Denver Nuggets.

The loss dropped the Heat to 20-20 on the season, and they currently are just the No. 9 seed in the East after losing three games in a row.

Does Miami bounce back as a home favorite?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my best bet, and some player props to consider for this matinee matchup on Sunday.

Spurs vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Spurs +3.5 (-112)
Heat -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Spurs: +130
Heat: -155

Total

219.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Spurs vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Jan. 19
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Southwest
Spurs record: 19-21
Heat record: 20-20

Spurs vs. Heat Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

David Duke Jr. – out
Harrison Ingram – out
Riley Minix – out
Jeremy Sochan – out

Heat Injury Report

Josh Richardson – out
Josh Christopher – questionable
Bam Adebayo – available
Dru Smith – out
Isaiah Stevens – out

Spurs vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

San Antonio Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Stephon Castle UNDER 14.5 Points (-105)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m fading Stephon Castle against the Heat:

Spurs rookie Stephon Castle has scored 20 or more points in three straight games, but I’m not sold on him doing it against a tough Miami defense that ranks 26th in the NBA in pace.

I think this game could be a slower-paced matchup, and Castle has benefitted from back-to-back games against Memphis – the team that plays at the fastest tempo in the NBA.

Not only that, but Castle only has 13 games (out of 39) this season where he’s scored 15 or more points. The rookie is back in the starting lineup with Jeremy Sochan banged up, but I’m not sold on him attempting 20-plus shots like he did in one of his meetings with Memphis.

Overall, Castle has been extremely inefficient as a rookie, shooting just 40.1 percent from the field and 25.3 percent from 3.

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Jimmy Butler OVER 17.5 Points (-110)

Butler is a volatile player to bet on in the prop market because of his desire to be traded – and up and down play this season – but I think he can clear this points prop on Sunday.

Butler had 18 points on 15 shots on Friday night, and Erik Spoelstra played him over 33 minutes in the loss to Denver. Butler is averaging 17.6 points per game, but he’s scored 18 or more in 11 of the 13 games that he’s attempted at least 12 shots.

That’s not a crazy ask out of Butler, especially against a Spurs defense that is in the middle of the pack in defensive rating (14th).

Spurs vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

The Spurs are one of my favorite bets on Sunday, and taking them to cover is another play that I gave out in today’s Peter’s Points:

I’m buying Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs as road underdogs in the matinee matchup with Miami on Sunday.

The Spurs are in the middle of the pack in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games while the Heat are just 23rd, and I’m not sold on the return of Jimmy Butler jumpstarting this Miami squad. The Heat were blown out by 20 by Denver on Friday night in Butler’s return.

In addition to that, the Spurs have been solid as road dogs (7-6 against the spread). Miami is just 8-10 against the spread overall at home, and it has posted an average scoring margin of just +1.6 points in those games.

San Antonio is live to pull off an upset in this matchup, so I’ll gladly take the 3.5 points.

Pick: Spurs +3.5 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.