Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6

Can the Minnesota Timberwolves extend their season on Friday night?

Anthony Edwards and company are set as home underdogs in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs, who dominated Game 5 at home to take a 3-2 series lead.

Victor Wembanyama returned from being ejected in Game 4 to drop 27 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and three blocks in Game 5, leading the Spurs to a 29-point win – their second blowout victory at home in this series.

In NBA history, teams that win Game 5 in a series tied 2-2 go on to advance over 85 percent of the time.

These teams split Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota, though the Spurs did win Game 3 with Wembanyama in the lineup for the entire game. Minnesota is 4-1 at home in the playoffs, but it is facing an uphill battle to make the Western Conference Finals for the third season in a row.

San Antonio is -1200 to win this series, and it could set up a matchup with the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder with a win on Friday. If not, these two teams will head to a winner-take-all Game 7.

The Wolves have been underdogs in every game this postseason, so this is a familiar spot for them in Game 6. Does Chris Finch’s squad bounce back after a poor showing in Game 5?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Friday’s Game 6.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Spurs -5.5 (-110)
Timberwolves +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Spurs: -218
Timberwolves: +180

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 15
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Series: San Antonio leads 3-2

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Timberwolves Injury Report

Donte DiVincenzo – out

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-153)

Edwards has seen all types of defensive coverage from the Spurs in this series, yet he’s scored 32, 36 and 20 points in his last three games (all starts). The 20-point showing in Game 5 came on just 13 shots, and I expect Ant to be much more aggressive with the Wolves’ season on the line.

In his playoff career, Edwards is averaging 25.9 points per game, and this is the first postseason where he hasn’t averaged at least 25 per game in his entire career.

When facing elimination, Edwards has put up 30, 34, 29, 27, 16, 29, 28 and 19 points. So, he’s scored at least 25 in six of eight games. He’s averaging 26.5 points on 22.5 shots in those games, so I expect his volume to increase on Friday night.

Edwards’ two best games in this series came at home, and the two days off between Game 5 and Game 6 are huge for him since he’s dealt with knee injuries all postseason. I think this line is a steal as the Wolves look to force a Game 7 in this second-round series.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m trusting the Spurs to end this series in six games:

Minnesota has been a great story this postseason, as it has fought back without a healthy team to force six games in the Western Conference semifinals. Despite that, I can’t get behind the Wolves at this number in Game 6.

Minnesota may only be alive in this series because of Wembanyama’s ejection (which was deserved) in Game 4, and it failed to cover at home in Game 3, allowing him to score 39 points in the process.

The Spurs are the No. 1 defense in the NBA Playoffs and rank in the top three in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating and effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the Wolves are shooting just 41.4 percent from the field in this series, and they’ve simply been outclassed since Game 2. Yes, Minnesota is 4-1 straight up at home, but it has been blown out twice by a Spurs team that has more depth.

Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels have not been efficient enough scoring the ball in this series to help Anthony Edwards, and the Spurs have done a great job taking the Wolves out of their rhythm on offense by blitzing Edwards. That’s led to 80 turnovers in five games, making it extremely tough for Minnesota to keep pace with an efficient Spurs offense.

It’s certainly possible that the Wolves force a Game 7, but it’s hard to look at the results of this series and say that these teams are equals. After all, Minnesota now has a minus-3.5 net rating in the playoffs despite winning six of 11 games.

Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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