Steelers vs. Jets Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

Aaron Rodgers returns to MetLife Stadium in Week 1 after his failed stint with the New York Jets.

The new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback is looking to show that he can succeed in his 40s, and he has a strong defense behind him to make that happen. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers teams have never finished under .500, so Rodgers is in pretty good hands – if he still has something left in the tank – in 2025.

As for the Jets, they usher in former first-round pick (and former Steeler) Justin Fields as their quarterback in the 2025 season. New head coach Aaron Glenn wants this to be a defensive-minded team, and New York has some pieces on that side of the ball that could make it a frisky squad – especially against the spread – in 2025.

The best betting sites have the Steelers set as favorites in this matchup, but can bettors trust them to cover with a new look offense led by Rodgers and DK Metcalf? If the connection holds up, it could be one of the best in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at the odds, trends, players to watch and more before making a prediction on this Week 1 matchup.

Steelers vs. Jets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Steelers -3 (-102)
Jets +3 (-118)

Moneyline

Steelers: -155
Jets: +130

Total

38.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Steelers vs. Jets How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: MetLife Stadium
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Steelers record: 0-0
Jets record: 0-0

Steelers vs. Jets Betting Trends

The Steelers were 11-7 against the spread in 2024.
The Jets are 6-11 against the spread in 2024.
The OVER was 10-6-1 in the Jets’ games in 2024.
The UNDER was 10-8 in the Steelers’ games last season.

Steelers vs. Jets Injury Reports

Steelers Injury Report

Derrick Harmon – questionable
Nick Herbig – questionable

Jets Injury Report

Tyrod Taylor – questionable
Isaiah Davis – questionable
Will McDonald IV – questionable
Allen Lazard – questionable

Steelers vs. Jets Key Player to Watch

Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Steelers

After a rough season with the Jets in 2024, Rodgers is off to a new home in Pittsburgh to help Mike Tomlin get back to the playoffs. The Steelers have the infrastructure and the defense to get into the postseason if Rodgers is just average, and the former league MVP did have some good games near the end of the 2024 season.

Rodgers finished with 28 touchdown passes to just 11 interceptions, but he wasn’t very mobile and didn’t want to take too many hits after suffering a torn Achilles in 2023. At 41 years old, he’s trying to show that he can still be an above-average quarterback at this stage in his career.

Steelers vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Monday, SI’s NFL betting insider – Iain MacMillan – shared why he likes the Steelers in this game in his Road to 272 column, where he picks every game in the NFL season:

Not to say Aaron Glenn isn't the long-term answer at head coach for the New York Jets, but I can't imagine a team with Justin Fields at quarterback being competitive against any competent team in the league this season.

Meanwhile, I'm cautiously optimistic about a Steelers team that has a few new faces in key positions this year. Aaron Rodgers looked much better in the final few games of the 2025 season, and his pairing with DK Metcalf at wide receiver is interesting to say the least.

I trust in Mike Tomlin, who knows how to defend against Fields, the former Steeler. Pittsburgh is the bet to make with the line still under the magic number of three.

While I would usually give the nod to Tomlin here – and I likely will bet on the Steelers to win outright – I think the UNDER is the best bet in this matchup.

New York’s pass-catching group is extremely weak after Garrett Wilson, and the Jets trying to run the ball and slow the game down could work right into Pittsburgh’s hands.

Rodgers is a bit of a wild card in this matchup, but New York’s defense certainly knows what he can – and can’t – do after he spent the last two seasons with the Jets.

I trust both defensive units much more than I trust these quarterbacks, so I’ll go UNDER on the lowest total in Week 1.

Pick: UNDER 38.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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