Sun vs. Fire Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Monday, May 18 (Bet on Portland?)

Both the Portland Fire and Connecticut Sun aren’t projected to make the playoffs in the 2026 season, but the Fire (1-2) have gotten off to a decent start in their first season as a franchise.

Meanwhile, the Sun have yet to win a game this season and are in a clear rebuild in their final season before they move to Houston. CT has the worst net rating and the worst offensive rating in the W so far in 2026, and it lacks a lot of top-line talent after allowing Marina Mabrey to be picked in the expansion draft this past offseason.

The Fire don’t have a clear top-line star, but they do have a lot of shooting (fifth in effective field goal percentage) led by Bridget Carleton.

Portland is still just 13th in the league in net rating, so it’s not a surprise that oddsmakers are expecting a close game between these two teams.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop target and a game prediction for Sun vs. Fire on May 18.

Sun vs. Fire Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sun +3.5 (-105)
Fire -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Sun: +150
Fire: -180

Total

173.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Sun vs. Fire How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 18
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center
How to Watch (TV): Fox 12 Plus, NBC Sports Boston, WNBA League Pass
Sun record: 0-4
Fire record: 1-2

Sun vs. Fire Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

Brittney Griner – probable
Olivia Nelson-Ododa – out

Fire Injury Report

Carla Leite – questionable
Kamiah Smalls – questionable
Karlie Samuelson – out

Sun vs. Fire Best WNBA Prop Bet

Fire Best WNBA Prop Bet

Bridget Carleton OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)

The Sun have struggled on defense to open this season, ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating and 13th in opponent 3-point percentage.

So, for a team like Portland that takes 31.0 3-pointers per game (second in the WNBA) this is a pretty intriguing matchup.

I’m targeting Carleton in the prop market, as the top pick in the 2026 expansion draft is a career 39.2 percent shooter from 3, and she’s buried 41.7 percent of her looks this season.

The former second-round pick has cleared this prop twice in three games, taking seven, 11 and six 3-pointers. As long as the volume stays the same for Carleton, she’s worth a look at this price (+110) on a nightly basis.

Sun vs. Fire Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking the Fire to win and cover against CT:

Both the Portland Fire and Connecticut Sun have struggled in the 2026 season, but I can’t get behind Connecticut at this price on the road.

The Sun are 1-3 against the spread and 0-4 straight up, losing games by 31, seven, 29 and seven points. CT has the worst offensive rating in the WNBA, and it ranks 13th in defensive rating, good for a net rating of minus-21.9.

Now, the Fire have a net rating of minus-12.6 (also bad), but they did upset the Liberty earlier this season at home. That same New York team beat the Sun by 31 points in their lone meeting in 2026.

Connecticut doesn't have a go-to scorer on offense, as Aneesah Morrow and Brittney Griner are leading the team in points per game (14.5).

If there’s one reason to bet on Portland, it’s the team’s shooting (fifth in the W in effective field goal percentage), especially from 3. Connecticut is 13th in opponent 3-point percentage and 15th in opponent field goal percentage (52.7%) in 2026.

I’ll trust Portland to get a win at home in a battle between two teams that will likely be near the top of the draft in 2027.

Pick: Fire -3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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