Sun vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Season Opener

The New York Liberty open their 2026 season on Friday night, but they won’t have star guard Sabrina Ionescu (ankle) or forward Satou Sabally (illness) n the lineup.

Ionescu is nearing a return, but she’s been ruled out for this matchup, meaning fans will have to wait to see the new-look squad of Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabally together.

Still, the Liberty are massive favorites at home – where they were 17-5 last season – against the rebuilding Connecticut Sun. The Sun are playing their last season in Connecticut before they’ll relocate to Houston, and they have an interesting roster after losing Marina Mabrey in the expansion draft this offseason.

CT will be led by some young players like Aaliyah Edwards, Saniya Rivers and rookie Gianna Kneepkens and Nell Angloma. The Sun also added star center Brittney Griner in free agency.

Oddsmakers are expecting an easy win for New York, especially after the Sun had one of the worst records in the W last season.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this season opener.

Sun vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sun +11.5 (-105)
Liberty -11.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Sun: +575
Liberty: -850

Total

161.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Sun vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 8
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): ION
Sun record: 0-0
Liberty record: 0-0

Sun vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

Shey Peddy – out
Aaliyah Edwards – out

Liberty Injury Report

Sabrina Ionescu – out
Satou Sabally – out

Sun vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Jonquel Jones OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-105)

Jonquel Jones averages 8.4 rebounds per game for her career, and she opened last season with double-digit boards in five of her first six games.

Injuries have limited Jones at times over the last few seasons, but she remains one of the most dominant centers in the league when healthy.

I don’t mind this prop for the Liberty star, as Connecticut had one of the worst offenses in the WNBA last season and lost two key players – Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles – from that team. This appears to be another rebuilding year for the Sun, and I wouldn’t be shocked if opponents eat on the glass against them.

Last season, CT ranked 12th out of 13 teams in rebound percentage (47.5 percent).

Sun vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m backing New York to start the season with a win:

Ionescu (ankle) and Sabally (illness) are expected to miss Friday’s game for the Liberty, but I’m still buying them as big favorites against the Sun.

Connecticut is a team in transition – literally, it is moving to Houston next season – and I don’t see the Sun putting up a huge fight on the road against a title contender. Last season, Connecticut was just 9-11 against the spread as a road underdog, posting an average scoring margin of minus-15.9 points in those games.

The Liberty went 17-5 at home despite dealing with a major injury to Breanna Stewart, and now they added Sabally to improve the depth of this roster. The Liberty are stacked with veterans and two former league MVPs in Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

Even with Ionescu expected to miss this game, I think New York is talented enough to pick up a blowout win at home.

Pick: Liberty -11.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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