Sun vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, July 28

The Washington Mystics have a solid cushion on the No. 8 seed in the WNBA coming out of the All-Star break, and they’re favored at home against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night.

Washington has the No. 3 defensive rating in the league, and that has made up for a shaky offense (No. 14 in offensive rating) so far in 2026.

The only team worse on offense this season? Connecticut.

The Sun are in a complete rebuild, and they’re just 7-20 overall in the 2026 season. The Sun went into the All-Star break playing pretty well, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. That includes a 68-57 win over the Mystics in the second meeting between these teams.

Washington won the first meeting in CT by seven points, and with two struggling offenses facing off, oddsmakers have set the Mystics as just two-possession favorites at home.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this showdown on July 28.

Sun vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sun +5.5 (-110)
Mystics -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Sun: +173
Mystics: -213

Total

156.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Sun vs. Mystics How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: CareFirst Arena
How to Watch (TV): MNMT, NBC Sports Boston, WNBA League Pass
Sun record: 7-20
Mystics record: 14-12

Sun vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

Aaliyah Edwards -- probable
Brittney Griner -- out
Saniya Rivers -- probable

Mystics Injury Report

None to report

Sun vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bet

Shakira Austin OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-127)

This season, Austin is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, but she’s really picked things up on the glass over the last month.

Austin has 10 or more rebounds in seven of her last 11 games, including a 12-rebound showing in her lone appearance against the Sun. CT ranks just ninth in the WNBA in rebound percentage this season, and it is dead last in effective field goal percentage. So, there should be plenty of misses for Austin to clean up on the defensive end.

Plus, the former No. 3 overall pick has at least nine boards in nine of her last 11 games. She should hang around this number on Tuesday night.

Sun vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

These teams combined for just 125 points in their last meeting, and they have two of the best defenses in the league over the last several weeks.

Washington is No. 2 in defensive rating over its last 10 games while Connecticut is No. 3, and the Sun have won five of those games thanks to their improvement on the defensive end. Despite that, these remain the two worst offenses in the W, which is why the total for this game is so low.

The Sun and Mystics combined for 169 points in their first meeting, but I’m expecting a rock fight in Washington on Tuesday.

Not only do the Mystics rank 14th in the league in pace this season, but they have also hit the UNDER in exactly half of their games. Only four of the 15 teams in the league have hit the UNDER more often than the OVER this season.

If CT can continue the defensive pressure that it had in the leadup to the All-Star break, I could see both teams struggling to reach 80 points. After all, they currently combine to average just 160.8 points per game this season.

Pick: UNDER 156.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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