Suns vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, March 10

A rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals takes place on Tuesday night, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks host Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns.

Both of these teams look way different than they did in that series in 2021, but the Suns are in a play-in spot (No. 7 in the West) at this point in the regular season. The same can’t be said for the Bucks, who are several games back of the No. 10-seeded Charlotte Hornets entering Tuesday’s action.

The Bucks are just 1-3 since Giannis returned from a calf injury (1-2 when he plays), and they’re in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating. That simply isn’t going to cut it for a team that lacks elite offensive talent outside of Antetokounmpo.

Meanwhile, the Suns have won with defense all season long, posting the 10th-best defensive rating in the NBA. Can they pull off a road win on Tuesday?

Here’s a look at who is favored in this game, my favorite prop bet and a prediction as the Bucks and Suns battle for playoff positioning.

Suns vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Suns -1.5 (-102)
Bucks +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Suns: -115
Bucks: -105

Total

217.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Suns vs. Bucks How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 10
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Fiserv Forum
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family Sports, FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Suns record: 37-27
Bucks record: 27-36

Suns vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Suns Injury Report

Dillon Brooks – out
Mark Williams – out
Grayson Allen – questionable
Jordan Goodwin – questionable

Bucks Injury Report

Alex Antetokounmpo – out
Cormac Ryan – out
Taurean Prince – questionable
Kevin Porter Jr. – out

Suns vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 25.5 Points (-115)

Since returning from his calf injury, Antetokounmpo has scored 19, 24 and 27 points in his three games. He’s been the focal point of the offense when he’s on the floor, taking at least 14 shots in every game despite being on a minutes restriction.

Giannis also took 15 free throws in Milwaukee’s win over Utah, and his ability to get to the line raises his floor in any scoring prop.

The Suns have the No. 10 defense in the league this season,but that has taken a step back in recent weeks. Phoenix is just 17th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 15 games, and it remains without defensive stalwart Dillon Brooks (broken hand).

Giannis is averaging well over 25.5 points per game this season, and he should continue to approach 15 or more shots per night. I think he’s worth a look to clear this line, as he does have 20 games (out of 33) with 26 or more points this season.

Suns vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Phoenix is a great bet on the road:

Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, the Milwaukee Bucks are struggling to stay afloat in the Eastern Conference, sitting four games back of the No. 10 seed.

Milwaukee was blown out without Giannis on Sunday by the Orlando Magic, and it’s just 16-17 in the 33 games that he’s played in this season. So, I think the Bucks are an easy fade candidate at home against the Phoenix Suns, who are 1.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Phoenix has won two games in a row and is just 1.5 games out of the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. The Suns have dominated teams that are under .500 (which the Bucks are) this season, going 20-4 straight up.

While Phoenix has been much better at home than on the road, I can’t look past the difference between these teams on the defensive end of the floor. The Suns are 10th in the league in defensive rating this season while the Bucks are 24th.

Milwaukee’s net rating goes in the tank when Giannis is on the bench, and he’s remained on a minutes restriction since returning from his second calf injury of the season.

I think this is a massive discount for the Suns, who look like a clear playoff team in the 2025-26 season.

Pick: Suns Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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