TCU vs. South Carolina Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8

Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks are back in the Elite 8, and they have a tough test with a No. 3-seeded TCU team that has one of the best players in the country.

Guard Olivia Miles is averaging a triple-double in the NCAA Tournament, leading the Horned Frogs to wins over Virginia, Washington and UC San Diego. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have three wins in a row by 26 or more points against Southern, USC and Oklahoma.

Both of these teams lost their conference title game – South Carolina lost to Texas and TCU lost to West Virginia – but they’ve rebounded to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

South Carolina demolished Oklahoma in the Sweet 16, winning by 26, while the Horned Frogs held off a 10-seeded Virginia team by 10. Olivia Miles and Marta Suarez form one of the best duos in college basketball, but the Gamecocks are a much deeper team.

So, oddsmakers have set South Carolina as a double-digit favorite in the Elite 8.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Monday night’s showdown.

TCU vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

TCU +14.5 (-114)
South Carolina -14.5 (-106)

Moneyline

TCU: +880
South Carolina: -1800

Total

133.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

TCU vs. South Carolina How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 30
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
TCU record: 32-5
South Carolina record: 34-3

TCU vs. South Carolina Key Player to Watch

Olivia Miles, Guard, TCU

Miles has a real case to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft, and she’s coming off a dazzling showing in the Sweet 16 against Virginia.

The senior guard finished with 28 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and two steals to lead the Horned Frogs to a 10-point win. Miles is the engine of the TCU offense, averaging 19.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game while shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from 3-point range.

South Carolina has a lot of intriguing guard defenders that it can throw at Miles, but the TCU star is averaging a triple-double in this year’s NCAA Tournament. If Miles controls the pace and flow of this game, it could allow TCU to pull off an insane upset.

TCU vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

TCU did not play a tough schedule in the Big 12, and it was just 4-3 against ranked opponents through the Big 12 title game.

That’s a major concern heading into this game against a South Carolina team that is No. 3 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. Bart Torvik has a metric that ranks teams compared to the average bubble team (Wins Above Bubble) and South Carolina (+15.0) had the second-highest ranking while the Horned Frogs are down at +7.3 due to their easier schedule.

TCU has the No. 1 opponent effective field goal percentage in the country, but the fact that it played such a close game with Virginia is worrisome against one of the best teams in the country. South Carolina is battle tested and has blown out everyone in the NCAA Tournament (and basically all season) outside of the Texas Longhorns.

I’m going to lay the points with Dawn Staley’s squad as it has the depth to combat the Miles-Suarez duo.

Pick: South Carolina -14.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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