Texans vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 14 (Can Houston Cover Again?)

Who will win and cover on Sunday night?

The Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. are underdogs on Sunday. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are red hot right now, winning four games in a row to get to 7-5 in the 2025 season, and they have a massive matchup for their playoff chances in Week 14.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes host Houston on Sunday Night Football, and the Chiefs (6-6) need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive in a crazy AFC playoff picture.

Kansas City already doesn’t have tiebreakers against Jacksonville, Buffalo and the Los Angeles Chargers, so it needs a win over Houston to have a real shot to get into the top seven this season. Meanwhile, the Texans are still alive to win the AFC South and have picked up wins over Indianapolis and Buffalo in back-to-back weeks.

The Chiefs are favored at home on Sunday, but can bettors trust them to win and cover against one of the best defenses in the NFL? 

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing final score predictions for each game in the NFL as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets.

Here’s how I see this primetime matchup going on Sunday. 

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans +3.5 (-118)
• Chiefs -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Texans: +145
• Chiefs: -175

Total

• 41.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Kansas City opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup, but the odds have come crashing down ahead of Sunday night’s game.

Houston is now just a 3.5-point underdog, and it’s coming off back-to-back outright wins as a dog to get to 7-5 in the 2025 season. The Chiefs, who have struggled in one-score games this season, are just 5-6-1 against the spread overall and 4-5-1 against the spread when favored this season. 

Texans vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this matchup in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week – and he’s taking the Texans to cover on the road: 

The Kansas City Chiefs aren't the team they were last year. Whether it's fatigue from years of deep playoff runs or simply regression away from the strong variance or "luck" they've had in late-game situations the past few seasons, we need to evaluate them differently in 2025.

Now, they have to take on a red-hot Houston Texans team that boasts the best defense in football. They rank first in opponent EPA, third in opponent success rate, second in defensive DVOA, and fourth in opponent yards per play (4.7). Offensively, the Texans have found their stride lately and are a dangerous unit with C.J. Stroud at quarterback.

The Texans may not win, but I'd be surprised if the Chiefs are able to win by margin.

While I do think the Chiefs keep their season alive in this matchup, Houston has won four games in a row and has one of the best defenses in the league.

The Texans are fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and first in points allowed, and they’re now 2-0 as an underdog – winning both games outright – against the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts in back-to-back weeks. 

I think they keep this game close against a Chiefs team that has struggled in one-score games in 2025, going 1-6 in those matchups. 

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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