Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 18

Reed Wallach | Feb 18, 2025

Feb 11, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward KeShawn Murphy (3) drives against the Florida Gators during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Texas A&M’s hot streak continues on Tuesday night as the team is on the road to face Mississippi State. 

The Aggies have emerged as an SEC contender this season, on the heels of seven wins in the last eight games. The team has been able to escape with road wins in this heater with its lone loss coming in a one-point loss to Texas after leading by more than 20 in that game. Outside of that, Texas A&M has won three games on the road in the aforementioned stretch by a combined margin of eight points. 

The team is on the road yet again to face Mississippi State on Tuesday as a small underdog. The Bulldogs have been mired by poor shooting over the last handful of games, losing three of its last five games. Can the team get back over .500 in SEC play and score an impressive home win? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Texas A&M: +2.5 (-110)
• Mississippi State: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Texas A&M: +118
• Mississippi State: -142

Total: 143.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 18th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Humphry Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Texas A&M Record: 20-5
• Mississippi State Record: 18-7

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Best Prop Bets

Texas A&M

Wade Taylor UNDER 4.5 Assists (-148)

Taylor has been a strong facilitator of late, dishing out a combined 15 assists over the last two games, but that is far from the norm for the Aggies guard, who failed to go over four assists in five of six games since returning from a three-game injury absence. 

I’m going to go back to basics with the shot-first-minded Taylor against a sturdy Mississippi State defense that does a good job of forcing teams to shoot from the perimeter, allowing the 57th-highest three-point rate in the country. 

Texas A&M is an offense that is reliant on its ability to get to the free throw line, the team has the 31st highest points distribution coming from free throws in the country and is 292nd in effective field goal percentage. Most of its offense is leveraged on isolation sets and second-chance buckets outside of free throws, which skews away from Taylor playing the role of facilitator on the road.  

Mississippi State

KeShawn Murphy OVER 17.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)

The Bulldogs’ big man has been on a tear in SEC play, going over this number in the last five games as he continues to play more of a role on offense. He has seen his usage rate tick up in league play while also posting enhanced effective field goal percentage marks. 

While Texas A&M dominates the shot volume category, the team is the sixth-best rebounding team in the country, more pressure will be on the likes of Murphy to compete on the boards.

Further, the Aggies are a poor shooting bunch, 292nd in effective field goal percentage as stated before, which makes me bullish that there will be available rebounds for both sides in this one when factoring in that the Bulldogs are a pedestrian 111th in the same metric. 

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

I think this matchup sets up nicely for Mississippi State to score an impressive SEC win. 

While I need to take a leap of faith in the team shooting somewhat decent from the perimeter, the team is last in SEC three-point percentage at 28.5%, the team should be able to run its preferred offense that has the third highest three-point rate in the league. 

The Texas A&M compact defense allows the highest three-point rate in SEC play this season as it mixes in zone quite a bit as well which the Bulldogs have handled with ease during the year. 

Both defenses are elite, and Mississippi State has the rebounding chops to hang with the Aggies on the glass as the team is at its best when it can win the shot-volume battle. The Bulldogs are 71st in rebounding rate this season. 

The Aggies have been playing in a ton of close games, going 4-1 in games decided by four points or fewer. On the road, I think the team runs into a poor matchup and is out-classed by Mississippi State, who can limit Texas A&M’s best strength on the glass and run its typical offense. 

PICK: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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