Texas vs. UCLA Opening Odds, Preview for March Madness Final Four

For the second time in as many seasons, the UCLA Bruins and Texas Longhorns are back in the Final Four, only this time they’ll face off with a trip to the national title game on the line.

Last year, UCLA lost to UConn in the Final Four while Texas lost to South Carolina, but both teams return a ton of players from those squads in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Superstar Lauren Betts leads a deep UCLA team that was tested by Duke in the Elite 8, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit to win by 12 and advance to the Final Four. Meanwhile, Texas and forward Madison Booker rolled through their first four games in the NCAA Tournament, blowing out No. 2-seeded Michigan by 36 points in Monday’s Elite 8 game.

The Longhorns also have a win over the Bruins under their belt this season, as these teams met back on Nov. 26 in Las Vegas. Rori Harmon (26 points) led the way for the Longhorns in a 76-65 victory.

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All of Texas’ losses this season came to teams that finished with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament (South Carolina, LSU and Vanderbilt) while UCLA did not lose again after dropping that November game to Texas.

Oddsmakers have set the Longhorns as slight favorites in this matchup, but the latest national championship odds barely have Texas ahead of UCLA.

Let’s take a look at the odds and my preview of Friday’s Final Four showdown.

Texas vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Texas -1.5 (-110)
UCLA +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Texas: -128
UCLA: +104

Total

133.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Both of these teams have come a long way since their meeting in Las Vegas, but Texas’ dominant showing in the NCAA Tournament is a major reason why it’s favored in this game.

The Longhorns have wins by 42, 42, 22 and 36 points, easily getting past Kentucky and Michigan in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

UCLA had a tough time with Duke in the Elite 8, but it did record a 24-point win over Minnesota in the Sweet 16. The Longhorns have the size to deal with Betts down low, but the star center has put together some huge games in the NCAA Tournament, including 23 in the win over Duke on Sunday.

Texas vs. UCLA Final Four Preview

Texas’ win over UCLA earlier this season looms large, especially when one considers that the Longhorns held Betts to just eight points in 37 minutes of action.

Texas has a strong front line, led by Kyla Oldacre, and it ranks second in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Longhorns are No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency while UCLA clocks in at No. 1 in offense and No. 5 in defense.

While the Longhorns aren’t a great field goal percentage defense (they rank 31st in opponent effective field goal percentage), they are elite at winning the turnover battle, something they did against Michigan, forcing 15 giveaways. Texas is fifth in turnover rate on offense and eighth in opponent turnover rate on defense.

UCLA does not turn over its opponents at a high rate (No. 265 in the country), but this offense is elite. The Bruins are No. 2 in eFG%, No. 2 in 2-point percentage and No. 9 in 3-point percentage. UCLA should have a major advantage from deep since Texas is just 363rd in the country 3-point rate.

The betting odds in this game suggest we’ll see a true toss up on Friday, and the play of two of the best pure scorers (Betts and Booker) in the country is going to determine a lot in this game.

If Texas holds Betts down like it did back in November, it’s hard to see UCLA coming out with a win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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