Thea Frodin vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open First Round

No. 2 ranked Elena Rybakina is eyeing her second Grand Slam win of 2026, as she begins her U.S. Open journey on Tuesday morning.

Rybakina won the Australian Open to begin this year, but she hasn’t fared nearly as well in her last two Grand Slams. On top of that, the 27-year-old has yet to make a quarterfinal appearance in any of her U.S. Open starts.

So, she’s facing an uphill battle to win it all, even though she’s a massive favorite in the first round against American Thea Frodin.

Frodin, 17, is making her first-ever Grand Slam appearance, and she’s set as a +1080 underdog in New York. Frodin has a career singles record of 29-29.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s history and my prediction for Tuesday morning’s first-round match.

Thea Frodin vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Thea Frodin: +1080
Elena Rybakina: -3100

Total

17.5 (Over -105/Under -140)

Thea Frodin vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 1
Time: 11:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Thea Frodin vs. Elena Rybakina History and U.S. Open Performance

Thea Frodin

This is Frodin’s first Grand Slam appearance of her career, and the 17-year-old is coming off a Round of 16 appearance at the Wimbledon Juniors earlier this year.

Frodin is 18-10 in her singles matches in 2026, and she’s facing an uphill battle as a +1080 underdog against one of the best players in the world.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has never made it past the fourth round at the U.S. Open (her best finish was in2025), but she’s proven she can dominate on hard courts, winning the Australian Open earlier this year.

The No. 2-ranked player in this year’s event, Rybakina is looking to rebound from a second-round exit at the French Open and a third-round exit at Wimbledon.

She’s played well as of late, reaching the quarterfinals in each of her last two events.

Thea Frodin vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

This is a massive test for Frodin in her first-ever Grand Slam, as Rybakina has won 81.5 percent of her service games in 2026.

The No. 2-ranked player has an impressive 42-13 record in 2026, and she’s played well since Wimbledon, reaching the final of the National Bank Open and the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open.

Rybakina lost to Iga Swiatek in both of those matches – the favorite to win the U.S. Open.

So, Frodin is going to have to play her best tennis to upset the reigning Australian Open winner.

As much as I’d love to see the young American pull off the biggest upset of the tournament, oddsmakers have made it clear that this should be a quick match.

I’ll take the UNDER on total games with Rybakina likely to win in straight sets.

Pick: Under 17.5 Games (-140 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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