Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Jan. 21

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back from a loss to the Miami Heat, beating the Cleveland Cavaliers pretty handily on Monday.

Now, the Thunder are looking to move to 20-1 this season when Jalen Williams (out with a hamstring injury) doesn’t play, as they are favored on the road against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 21.

The Bucks played an afternoon game on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day, upsetting the Atlanta Hawks. Milwaukee is within striking distance of a play-in tournament spot in the East, but this is a tough matchup against the best team in the NBA – even with Williams out.

The Bucks are just 4-5 against the spread as home underdogs this season, and they’ll need to play pretty well to avoid a blowout against an OKC team that ranks No. 1 in the league in net rating.

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Wednesday night’s matchup.

Thunder vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Bucks +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Thunder: -395
Bucks: +310

Total

227.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Thunder vs. Bucks How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 21
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Fiserv Forum
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Thunder record: 36-8
Bucks record: 18-24

Thunder vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Jalen Williams – out
Jaylin Williams – questionable
Isaiah Hartenstein – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Nikola Topic – out
Alex Caruso – out

Bucks Injury Report

Alex Antetokounmpo – out
Kevin Porter Jr. – questionable
Taurean Prince – out
Myles Turner – questionable

Thunder vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Chet Holmgren 18+ Points (-131)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why Holmgren is a great target with Williams out:

This season, Thunder big man Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.0 points per game while shooting 57.7 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from beyond the arc.

I think he's a great bet to pick up some of the slack with Jalen Williams (hamstring) out, especially after he dropped 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting in a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.

In 16 games with Williams out of the lineup this season, Holmgren is averaging 18.5 points per game, and he's scored at least 18 in nine of those matchups. While Chet isn't a pure scorer, he can be a matchup nightmare for some teams because of his size and shooting ability from the outside.

With more shots to go around with Williams out, I don't mind taking Chet to hit his season average against a Milwaukee Bucks defense that is just 20th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavily favored on Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks, even with star forward Jalen Williams out with a hamstring injury.

However, OKC blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, and it’s now 19-1 this season when Williams is out. So, this may be a blessing in disguise for the Thunder, as they take on a Milwaukee team that is under .500 against the spread as a home underdog.

The Bucks have some bad losses in recent weeks, and they’re just 24th in the league in net rating. On top of that, Milwaukee has been awful when Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the bench, posting a net rating of -9.8 points per 100 possessions.

So, there’s a chance the Thunder overwhelm the Bucks in the non-Giannis minutes on Wednesday.

Milwaukee is also just 6-18 against teams that are .500 or better, so I don’t see it keeping up with the No. 1 team in the NBA that has posted a net rating of +13.1 in the 2025-26 campaign.

Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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