Thunder vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Jan. 19

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder suffered their eighth loss of the season on Saturday night against the Miami Heat, and they may have lost Jalen Williams for an extended period in the process.

The All-Star forward left the game with a hamstring injury, and he’s listed as out against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday afternoon.

These two teams were the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences last season, but Cleveland has fallen off in the 2025-26 campaign, sitting at 24-19 through 43 games. Last season, the Cavs only lost 18 total games to earn the top spot in the East.

On Monday, oddsmakers have the Thunder favored on the road in this matchup. This is the second of nine games on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and it is the first of the three games that are on national television (NBC).

Can OKC survive without J-Dub in this matchup?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Thunder vs. Cavs.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Thunder -6.5 (-108)
Cavs +6.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Thunder: -225
Cavs: +185

Total

231.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Cavaliers How to Watch

Date: Monday, Jan. 19
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Thunder record: 35-8
Cavs record: 24-19

Thunder vs. Cavaliers Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Brooks Barnhizer – doubtful
Jalen Williams – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Nikola Topic – out
Isaiah Hartenstein – out

Cavs Injury Report

Darius Garland – out
Sam Merrill – out
Chris Livingston – out
Max Strus – out
Luke Travers – out
Dean Wade – probable

Thunder vs. Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Ajay Mitchell OVER 14.5 Points (-124)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Mitchell is a great bet with Jalen Williams banged up:

Former second-round pick Ajay Mitchell has become a reliable secondary scorer for the Thunder (behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) this season, and he was even better in the 19 games that Jalen Williams missed to open the campaign.

Now, with Williams out of the lineup due to a hamstring injury on Monday, I’m buying Mitchell to pick up the slack on offense.

Mitchell averaged 15.9 points on 12.5 shots per game during the 19-game stretch that Williams was sidelined, shooting 46.4 percent from the field. He's now averaging 14.2 points per game for the season, nearly a two-point drop off from his average without Williams. In 22 games with Williams in the lineup, Mitchell is averaging 12.7 points on 9.2 shots per game while shooting 50.5 percent from the field.

So, the young guard has been more efficient when Williams is in the lineup, but he's seen way less volume. That makes sense, as a lot of the non-SGA minutes are now dominated by Williams, but that won't be the case against Cleveland.

The Cavs are just 15th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and they're allowing over 26 points per game to opposing point guards. That's a good sign for Mitchell, who should play more minutes on Monday where he is the focal point of the offense.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

The Cavs remain the worst team in the NBA against the spread this season, and I don’t see that changing with Darius Garand and Sam Merrill both sidelined for this matchup.

Cleveland is 0-1 against the spread as a home underdog, and it has struggled against top teams ,going 10-14 straight up against squads that are .500 or better this season.

While the Thunder are just 9-11 against the spread as road favorites, they have posted an averaging scoring margin better than +11 in those games. On top of that, OKC went 18-1 in the games that Williams missed to open the season, so this team has plenty of experience with the star wing.

I think this line has come down far enough to trust the Thunder, who are 4-3 ATS and 5-2 straight up after a loss this season.

Pick: Thunder -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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