Thunder vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 4

Two teams with NBA Finals aspirations face off on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden.

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks are coming off a win against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, and they’re looking to take down the best team in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder. New York blew out the No. 2-seeded San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, but the Thunder are an even tougher test if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain) plays on Wednesday.

SGA sat out Oklahoma City’s win against the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday, as the Thunder are clearly easing him back into action after he missed time in February. SGA returned on Feb. 27 and has played in two of OKC’s last three games.

Oddsmakers have set OKC as a favorite in this matchup, but the Thunder have struggled on the second night of a back-to-back all season, going just 2-8 against the spread.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this battle between potential title contenders on Wednesday night.

Thunder vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -4.5 (-105)
Knicks +4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Thunder: -170
Knicks: +142

Total

222.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Knicks How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 4
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Madison Square Garden
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Thunder record: 48-15
Knicks record: 40-22

Thunder vs. Knicks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Knicks Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Thunder vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 6.5 Assists (-131)

After sitting out Tuesday’s game, SGA is expected to return on Wednesday. I’m fading him in the prop market, as I shared why the Knicks defense needs to be taken seriously in today’s best NBA props for SI Betting:

This season, SGA is averaging 6.4 assists on 12.7 potential assists per game, but I’m fading him on the road against this Knicks team.

New York ranks third in the NBA in opponent assists per game, allowing just 24.6 per night this season. In addition to that, the Knicks have been on fire defensively in recent weeks, posting the third-best defensive rating over their last 15 games and the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 10 games.

That could make things tough on SGA, especially when it comes to getting his teammates involved. The star guard had nine dimes on Feb. 27 in his first game back against the Denver Nuggets, but he was held to five assists in a win over Dallas on Sunday.

Overall, SGA has seven or more dimes in just 22 of his 51 games. He’s going to put up some big numbers scoring the ball just about every night, but I’ll fade him just a bit as a passer on Wednesday.

Thunder vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play between these two contenders:

The Knicks have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league recently, ranking third in defensive rating over their last 15 games and first over their last 10. Now, the Knicks are seventh in the NBA in defensive rating for the season, making them an intriguing UNDER team on Wednesday against OKC.

The Thunder and Knicks are both in the top five in the NBA in opponent points per game, and OKC remains No. 1 in the league in defensive rating after allowing just 108 points to Chicago on Tuesday.

The Knicks have a top-five offensive rating this season, but they’re just 23rd in the league in pace, which has allowed them to play some lower-scoring games.

Both of these teams have hit the UNDER in five of 10 games that were the second night of a back-to-back, and there is a recent trend with New York that I can’t pass up.

The UNDER has hit in 15 of the Knicks' last 21 games. Since New York has the best ATS record at home in the NBA, I’m going to stay away from a side and trust both of these defenses on Wednesday night.

Pick: UNDER 222.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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