Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Can OKC close out the Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals?

The Oklahoma City Thunder and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are favored in Game 4. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Can the Los Angeles Lakers keep their season alive? 

L.A. is down 3-0 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it’s set as a double-digit underdog in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday night.

Luka Doncic (hamstring) remains out for the Lakers, who have run out of gas in the second half in back-to-back games after leading at halftime. Meanwhile, Jalen Williams (hamstring) has been ruled out for the sixth game in a row for Oklahoma City. 

The Thunder are 7-0 against the Lakers (including the regular season) in the 2025-26 campaign, winning six of those games by 18 or more points. So, it makes sense that they’re double-digit favorites on the road after winning Game 3 by 23 points.

OKC is the favorite to win the title (-175), and it has controlled this series even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggling a bit from a scoring perspective. 

LeBron James and the Lakers shocked a lot of people by upsetting Houston without Doncic in the first round, but this may be too steep of a hill to climb for L.A.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 4 on Monday night. 

Thunder vs. Lakers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Thunder -10.5 (-115)
• Lakers +10.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -520
• Lakers: +390

Total

• 214.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Lakers How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 11 
• Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Series: OKC leads 3-0

Thunder vs. Lakers Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Thomas Sorber – out
• Jalen Williams – out

Lakers Injury Report

• Luka Doncic – out

Thunder vs. Lakers Best NBA Prop Bets

Lakers Best NBA Prop Bet

• LeBron James UNDER 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-124)

LeBron has put together an impressive playoff run at 41 years old, averaging 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game while shooting over 46 percent from the field.

However, in this series, the Thunder have held him under 37.5 points, rebounds and assists in three straight games. So, I’m taking the UNDER in Game 4.

If the Lakers fall behind big again in the second half, I can’t imagine J.J. Redick risking the health of James or Austin Reaves in a series where Los Angeles is already drawing dead. On top of that, LeBron has combined for 37, 31 and 33 points, rebounds and assists in his three games in this series despite playing over 36 minutes in each matchup.

There’s always a chance James turns back the clock and puts together a vintage performance to keep L.A.’s season alive, but after back-to-back games shooting 50 percent or better, he was just 7-for-19 from the field in Game 3. 

I think this number is a touch too high with OKC looking to close things out on Monday night. 

Thunder vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m trusting OKC to wrap up this series in Los Angeles: 

The Lakers have put together some valiant first-half performances in back-to-back games – leading at half in each matchup – but they’ve run out of gas on the offensive end in both games, losing by 18 and 23 points.

Los Angeles is now 0-7 against the Thunder in the 2025-26 season (including four regular season matchups), and it has lost six of those seven games by 18 or more points. So, even with this spread moving two points in OKC’s favor in Game 4, I’m still going to lay the points.

The Thunder have a net rating of plus-18.8 this postseason (No. 2 in the NBA), and they’ve shown that they can handle the Lakers’ early runs in games to then walk them down in the second half.

Los Angeles has competed in this series, but without Doncic, the Lakers don’t have the firepower to beat this Thunder team. I’d be surprised if the Thunder messed around and let this series get to a Game 5. 

Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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