Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 1

The Oklahoma City Thunder picked up a huge overtime win against the Denver Nuggets on Friday night, and they now find themselves with a much easier game on Sunday.

OKC is a 16.5-point road favorite against the tanking Dallas Mavericks, who have ruled Cooper Flagg (foot) out for a seventh game in a row.

Dallas has dropped eight of its last 10 games and two in a row, falling to 17 games under .500. In addition to Flagg being out, PJ Washington and Naji Marshall are listed as doubtful for the Mavs on Sunday.

That’s going to make it rough for their offense against the No. 1 defense in the NBA. OKC remains without Jalen Williams (hamstring), but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain) returned to action on Friday. So, the Thunder are getting closer to full strength for the stretch run of the regular season.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference clash on March 1.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -16.5 (-110)
Mavs -16.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Thunder: -1100
Mavs: +700

Total

233.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Mavericks How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 1
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Thunder record: 46-15
Mavs record: 21-38

Thunder vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Branden Carlson – out
Ajay Mitchell – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Jalen Williams – out

Mavs Injury Report

Cooper Flagg – out
Moussa Cisse – questionable
Marvin Bagley III – out
Kyrie Irving – out
Miles Kelly – out
Dereck Lively II – out
Naji Marshall – doubtful
Caleb Martin – probable
P.J. Washington – doubtful

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Cason Wallace 10+ Points (-131)

Cason Wallace has thrived as a starter this month, and he put up 10 points on Friday even with SGA back in the lineup.

Wallace has scored 10 or more points in eight games this month and four straight, including five games with at least 20 points. With SGA returning, Wallace wasn’t on the ball as much, but he took 10 shots in the overtime win against Denver.

Against a Dallas team that is clearly tanking, Wallace may see a few more extra minutes if the Thunder try to ease SGA back in after a long absence with his abdominal strain. Wallace has five games in a row with double-digit shot attempts, giving him a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m fading Dallas’ offense:

The Dallas Mavericks are massive underdogs and extremely short-handed on Sunday against the No. 1 defense in the NBA in the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Dallas won’t have rookie sensation Cooper Flagg, and P.J. Washington (ankle) is listed as doubtful. That leaves the Mavs with every few go-to options on the offensive end, and I think this points line is too high against an OKC team that is relatively healthy entering Sunday’s game.

The Thunder are No. 1 in defensive rating and No. 1 in opponent points per game, allowing just 107.7 per night. Dallas, on the other hand, is 26th in offensive rating and 22nd in effective field goal percentage this season.

With Flagg out, Dallas is going to have a hard time generating great looks, and it scored just 94 points earlier this season when these teams played in Dallas. I’ll trust the OKC defense on Sunday.

Pick: Mavs Team Total UNDER 109.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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