Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is a must-win game for the San Antonio Spurs, as they’re looking to avoid a 3-1 series deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

So much for the defending champs being in trouble, right?

OKC lost Game 1 in double overtime, but it held off the Spurs in Game 2 before rallying to win Game 3 by 15 points, despite the Spurs starting 15-0 in that gme. OKC outscored the Spurs by 30 points the rest of the way, even with Jalen Williams out and Ajay Mitchell exiting the game early.

De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper played in Game 3 for San Antonio, but both players looked to be less than 100 percent in the loss. Still, the biggest issue for the Spurs has been their bench minutes, specifically when Victor Wembayama is off the floor.

San Antonio is a shocking minus-37 in the minutes backup center Luke Kornet on the floor, and OKC’s bench has dominated, especially in the last two games. Can the Thunder put their foot down in Game 4?

Oddsmakers have OKC set as an underdog for the second game in a row and just the second time this season with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference Finals showdown.

Thunder vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder +1.5 (-108)
Spurs -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Thunder: +102
Spurs: -122

Total

219.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Thunder vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Sunday, May 24
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: OKC leads 2-1

Thunder vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out
Ajay Mitchell -- out
Jalen Williams -- questionable

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Thunder vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m trusting SGA as a passer once again in Game 4:

SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game in the 2026 postseason, and he’s been a willing passer in this series against San Antonio.

Through three games, the two-time MVP has 12, nine and 12 assists, picking up eight or more in eight of his last 10 playoff games. He’s seeing a ton of double teams from San Antonio, and the Thunder have stepped up with players like Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams and several others making big shots off the bench.

This is the second straight series that has required SGA to be a passer first and a scorer second, and he’s shown he is more than willing to distribute the ball in this series. I think this line is a steal ahead of Game 4.

Spurs Best Prop Bet

Stephon Castle OVER 6.5 Assists (-114)

Stephon Castle has been asked to carry a massive playmaking load in the postseason, especially in this series with De’Aaron Fox missing two games and Dylan Harper getting banged up in Game 2.

Castle has 11, eight and seven dimes so far in this series, and he averaged 7.4 assists per game in the regular season.

So, this prop is simply asking Castle to reach his season average, and he’s playing a ton of minutes (34 or more) in this series.

Turnovers have been an issue for Castle, but he’s averaging nearly 12 potential assists per game in the playoffs. He’s worth a look in a must-win matchup in Game 4.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Another play from my NBA Best Bets column, I’m buying OKC on the road in Game 4:

Oklahoma City has been an underdog just six times (including Game 4) this season, but this is only the second time they’ve been set as an underdog with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup.

I’m buying OKC to cover – and likely win outright in Game 4 – as it has way more depth than a Spurs team that simply cannot survive when Wemby is off the floor.

The Spurs are minus-37 in backup center Luke Kornet’s minutes in this series, and the Spurs’ lack of offensive options with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper clearly at less than 100 percent was a glaring issue in Game 3.

The defending champs are now 3-2 against the spread as underdogs in the 2025-26 season, and they outscored the Spurs by 30 points after falling in a 15-0 hole on Friday night. There’s something to be said for OKC’s depth and championship pedigree, and the Spurs’ inexperience, especially on offense, has led to a ton of turnovers in this series.

OKC is nearly impossible to beat when it can win the turnover and transition battle, and it’s pretty clear that this series is wearing on the Spurs as a whole. I’m going to trust the Thunder to send this series back home with a 3-1 lead.

Pick: Thunder +1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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