Tigers vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 1

The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins have quickly fallen out of the playoff race in the American League, and while the Twins are technically still alive, they need to string some wins together in a hurry.

They took a step in the right direction on Monday night, beating the Tigers by a score of 11-1 in their series opener.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for tonight's AL Central duel.

Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run line

Tigers -1.5 (+146)
Twins +1.5 (-178)

Moneyline

Tigers -108
Twins -108

Total

OVER 8.5 (-124)
UNDER 8.5 (+102)

Tigers vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Detroit: Troy Melton, RHP (7-3, 1.86 ERA)
Andrew Morris, RHP (4-7, 3.82 ERA)

Tigers vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, September 1
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): Detroit SportsNet, Twins.TV Presented by Progressive, FOX9 KMSP, Gray Media
Tigers record: 63-74
Twins record: 66-72

Tigers vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Troy Melton UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

I'm going to fade the Tigers' starting pitcher, Troy Melton, in this spot. He has a 1.86 ERA, but a 3.41 xERA and 3.73 FIP tell me that some regression is in his future. He also ranks in just the 37th percentile in the Majors in strikeout rate and the 48th percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. Now, he has to face a Twins lineup that has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the Majors over the past 30 days, striking out on just 18.6% of plate appearances. With that in mind, let's bet the UNDER on his strikeout total of 4.5.

Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Best Bet

There was a recent stretch where the Tigers' offense was one of the hottest in baseball, but they have cooled off in a major way since then, now ranking just 28th in wRC+ over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, it's the Twins offense that has gotten hot, ranking sixth in wRC+ in that same time frame.

It's not just the Twins' offense that makes me want to bet on Minnesota. As I wrote above, Melton is due for some significant regression in the final stretch of the season. His underlying numbers don't support his ERA, and now that he has to face this Twins' lineup, that regression could kick into gear tonight.

I'll back the Twins to take care of business at home.

Pick: Twins -108 via FanDuel

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