Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs’ quest to win the NBA Finals continues on Monday with Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

San Antonio rolled through the first round – even with Wemby missing a game – beating the Portland Trail Blazers in five games. They’re now second in the odds to win the NBA Finals, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Meanwhile, the Wolves pulled off an insane first-round upset against the Denver Nuggets, and they did it without Anthony Edwards for the last 2.5 games. Edwards (knee) was injured in Game 4, and he’s listed as questionable for Game 1 on Monday night.

Recent reports over the weekend indicate that it’s more likely the star guard returns when the series shifts back to Minnesota. In addition to Edwards, the Wolves have listed Ayo Dosunmu (calf) as questionable and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is out for the season.

As a result, oddsmakers have set the Spurs as double-digit favorites at home in Game 1.

Minnesota won two of the three meetings between these teams in the regular season, but it is a much different squad if Ant doesn’t play on Monday.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +13.5 (-115)
Spurs -13.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +440
Spurs: -600

Total

217.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Timberwolves vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Monday, May 4
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBCSN/Peacock
Series: Tied 0-0

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Anthony Edwards – questionable
Ayo Dosunmu – questionable
Donte DiVincenzo – out

Spurs Injury Report

Carter Bryant – questionable

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists (-138)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Fox is a great prop target in Game 1:

San Antonio Spurs star De’Aaron Fox stepped up in the first round of the playoffs, averaging 20.2 points per game while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 37.0 percent from 3. He also dished out 6.8 assists per game, and that’s where I’m targeting him in the prop market in Game 1.

Minnesota has a better defense than Portland, but Fox picked up six or more dimes in four of the five games against Portland, tallying eight, seven and nine dimes in the three games that Victor Wembanyama completed.

Wemby opens up a ton of easy assist opportunities for Fox, who averaged over six dimes per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, the star guard is averaging 10.8 potential assists per game, and he’s averaging over 46 passes per night.

The potential assists is the key number here, as Fox needs to convert just over half of those to clear this prop. I think he’s worth a look against a Wolves team that he recorded 12 dimes against in their last regular-season meeting.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

These teams both finished the regular season in the top eight in the NBA in defensive rating, and they’ve turned it up so far in the playoffs.

Minnesota locked down Denver’s No. 1 offense, posting a defensive rating of 108.2 in that first-round series. Meanwhile, the Spurs had the second-best defensive rating of any team (102.2) in the first round against Portland.

With Edwards up in the air for this matchup, I can’t expect Minnesota to put up huge numbers offensively against the San Antonio defense and Wemby. Sure, the Nuggets (a bottom-10 defense) were beatable for Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle, but that won’t be the case on Monday night.

San Antonio and Minnesota have both been elite UNDER teams this season (50 of 88 games, including playoffs for both teams, have gone UNDER), so I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a slugfest in Game 1.

The Spurs deserve to be favorites, but I’d much rather target the total than lay this many points with San Antonio, especially after Minnesota shockingly upset Denver in Round 1.

Pick: UNDER 217.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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