Toledo vs. Akron Prediction, Odds, How to Watch MAC Championship Final

The MAC could be a two-bid conference in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but the Toledo Rockets or Akron Zips have a chance to guarantee a spot in the tourney ahead of Selection Sunday.

Akron is favored by 7.5 points the MAC Championship Final, and it was the No. 2 team in the conference all season long, losing just one game in conference play.

That loss came to the previously undefeated Miami (OH) RedHawks, who were upset by UMass in the quarterfinal of the MAC Championship. So, Miami’s fate as an NCAA Tournament team remains up in the air ahead of Selection Sunday.

The Zips and Rockets met one time in the regular season, and Akron pulled out a 91-81 win. One of the best offensive teams in the country, the Zips are riding a nine-game winning streak into this championship game.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s MAC Championship Final.

Toledo vs. Akron Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Toledo +7.5 (-115)
Akron -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Toledo: +245
Akron: -305

Total

159.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Toledo vs. Akron How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Toledo record: 19-14
Akron record: 28-5

Toledo vs. Akron Key Player to Watch

Tavari Johnson, Guard, Akron

An All-MAC First Team selection this season, Johnson is averaging 20.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game for the Zips while shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from 3-point range.

Earlier this season, Johnson dropped 25 points (on 9-of-18 shooting) and seven dimes in a win over the Rockets, and he’s coming off back-to-back strong showings in the MAC Championship. Johnson finished with 25 points in a quarterfinal win over Buffalo and 18 points in the semifinal win over Kent State.

He should take advantage of a Toledo defense that ranks 310th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage this season.

Toledo vs. Akron Prediction and Pick

KenPom views the Zips as a much better team than the Rockets this season, as Akron is 64th in the country overall and 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Rockets have a solid offense – 90th in adjusted offensive efficiency – but they are just 224th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

So, the 91 points that Toledo allowed to Akron earlier this season was certainly not a fluke. The Rockets’ defense is 310th in opponent eFG%, 309th in defensive rebound rate and 325th in opponent 3-point percentage.

This is a perfect matchup for the Zips, who have shot the lights out (eighth in eFG%) from all over the court, ranking 15th in 2-point percentage and eighth in 3-point percentage. The Zips are also 64th in 3-point rate, so they can swing a game from beyond the arc in a hurry.

Toledo does shoot the 3-ball well, ranking 28th in the country in 3-point percentage, but it doesn’t take nearly as many 3s as Akron. The Rockets are just 326th in the country in 3-point rate.

The Akron defense isn’t elite, but KenPom has it well ahead of the Rockets at 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Given Akron’s dominance over everyone not-named Miami (OH) in the MAC this season, I think it’s a great bet to cover against the shaky Toledo defense.

Pick: Akron -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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