Tour Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Hideki Matsuyama

After a long PGA Tour season, it all comes down to this. The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up at East Lake Golf Club for this week's Tour Championship.

Not only is this the final week of the PGA Tour season, but it's the final week for our SI Golf betting panel. It's been a fun season, with plenty of winners given out throughout the season, including three straight weeks with an outright winner, which unfortunately ended at last week's BMW Championship.

The SI Golf betting panel features Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Inside Sports Network Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra, and yours truly, Iain MacMillan, Each Wednesday, we have posted our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

For the second straight season, starting strokes don't matter at this year's Tour Championship. All 30 golfers are on an even playing field this week, which makes betting on the tournament straightforward. We can treat it as any other event, except for the fact that only 30 golfers will be competing. What hasn't changed is that the season finale is once again being hosted at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia.

For one final time this season, let's get into our picks with a full breakdown on each pick below.

SI Panel Tour Championship betting picks | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Xander Schauffele +1500 (FanDuel)

Xander Schauffele has dominated East Lake over the years. He finished with the best gross score three different times, including posting four other top-7 finishes. His worst finish here was a 13th-place finish in 2024. He's coming off a less-than-stellar performance at the BMW Championship, but he was T7 the week before at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Based on his course history alone, he's worth a bet at +1500.

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns +1800 (FanDuel)

Sam has had a great season and it is time for him to finish off an event. Burns has truly elevated his iron play strongly this year and that has shown in really the best year of his career from a consistency stand point. Burns has putted well on these Bermuda greens before and if the iron play stays the same then I think hes in for a great week.

Brad Thomas: Scottie Scheffler +365 (FanDuel)

+365 for Scheffler in a 30-man field feels good enough for me. I don’t think we have talked about how insane he played in rounds 2-4 at the BMW Championship. He basically started the tournament 4-over and still finished inside the top 12. He wants player of the year, and winning the FedEx Cup is probably the only way that happens.

Byron Lindeque: Sam Burns +1800 (FanDuel)

The narrative here is that Sam Burns is this year’s Tommy Fleetwood. A top 10 golfer in the world who has not won since 2023, having won 5 times in that 3 year stretch. He is having his approach year of his career and enters the week with four top 5s (T3, 3rd, 2nd, T4) in his last seven stats. He has never finished outside the to 30 at this event and will be looking for a ceremonial W to end his season!

Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy +950 (FanDuel)

Rory basically admitted he was rusty at the St. Jude, then came out last week and nearly chased down Wyndham Clark. More importantly to me, though, he found his ball-striking as he gained 5.5+ strokes with just ball-striking alone, not to mention the 3.54 strokes he got with the putter. Those are good signs as he heads to East Lake, where he’s been nothing short of electric and dominant in his career. Maybe it’s just Scottie, but maybe it’s also Rory this week.

Brian Giuffra: Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (FanDuel)

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride seems to be Deki’s M.O. for this season and the Tour Championship. He has four Top 10s and two Top 5s in his last five events but hasn’t been able to get back into the winner’s circle. Similarly, he has four Top 10s and two Top 5s in his career at East Lake. Whether he wins or not, 33/1 feels a bit disrespectful for a player who just gained strokes on approach and OTT in four straight tournaments.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Alex Smalley (BetRivers)

If I have to bet on a golfer to come from nowhere to win, the one I'm going to target is Alex Smalley at 66-1. He's quietly been playing some great golf lately, finishing T7 at the Wyndham Championship, T24 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and T16 at the BMW Championship. He finished sixth in the field last week in strokes-gained approach, which is going to be pivotal for him if he can keep up his strong iron play this week.

Brian Kirschner: Tom Kim +4500 (FanDuel)

Tom has had a great second half of the year, and since we only have 30 golfers in the field and I need to pick a longshot, a 4 time tour winner at his age seems like great value at these odds. He won in Scotland, T5 at Wyndham, and played well at St. Jude; he can cap the season off with another win.

Brad Thomas: Gary Woodland +6615 (ProphetX)

Gary Woodland isn’t a great course fit, but at this price I can still bet on him. He’s hitting his driver out of this world and playing with house money. It would be such a great feel-good story should he win.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +3200 (Fanatics)

The fact that we get the #6 golfer in the world can be a “long shot” in this 30-man field tells you that books are sleeping on the Charles Schwab winner. He hasn’t had the greatest run of form of late, but his improving on last year’s runner-up would not be shocking to me whatsoever. Find fairways, find greens, make putts. Life can be remarkably simple for the most accurate driver in the field if he finishes the week with the most fairways come Sunday.

Cody Williams: Tom Kim +5000 (Fanatics)

For better or worse, let’s ride with Tom Kim this week. His T28 last week was exceptionally middling, no doubt, and the red-hot ball-striking we saw a few months prior, including his win at the Scottish and solo third at the U.S. Open, looks like it might be gone, as there’s been a downward trend over the last three weeks. Even still, perhaps that’s a blip, and he gets back to that form, and the guy who is first in the field in par-4 scoring over the past 24 rounds gets right again to shock the world.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose +4600 (DraftKings)

I cashed on Rose earlier this year, so I’ll stick with him to finish this season out strong. His course history at East Lake is strong, with two runner-ups and six Top 10s. He played on the newly revamped course last year, so this won’t be new for him. He’s gained on approach in four of his last five events, and his putting remains a strong point. Let’s see if the old man can get one more across the finish line here.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Sam Burns +1800 (FanDuel)

East Lake is all about strong iron play, and Burns leads the entire field this week in strokes-gained approach over the past three months at +1.42, which is even better than Scheffler at +1.05. He has the skill to win this week, but if you don’t have faith in him closing the deal on Sunday, maybe betting on him to be the first-round leader is the route to follow when it comes to Sam Burns.

Brian Kirschner: Viktor Hovland +2200 (FanDuel)

Hovland won both the net and gross aspects of this event in 2023. He won earlier this year at the Travelers and was great at St Jude; I am sure that he can come off to a hot start this week.

Brad Thomas: Robert MacIntyre +3200 (BetRivers)

Bobby Mac is super volatile. Maybe he found something in the 4th round of the BMW Championship. If he did, he can hit enough fairways and roll in enough putts to make a charge in round 1.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley +2450 (DraftKings)

Henley finished T2 here last year and typically gets off to fast starts in R1. We are here to remind you that it's a dog-eat-dog world, and on Thursdays you don’t want to mess with no-muscle Russell in his home state of Georgia!

Cody Williams: Scottie Scheffler +830 (DraftKings)

I maintain there’s a real chance that Scottie just blisters the field this week. I know his Round 1s have been somewhat up-and-down, but this is arguably where you find the most value on him if you truly believe in his dominance. Would also hope that he’s not sick this week. That might help.

Brian Giuffra: Chris Gotterup +1900 (DraftKings)

He’s one of the fastest starters on Tour and is coming off a strong tournament where everything was clicking except the approach game. That’s usually his strong suit. He was T10 here last year, which kind of jump-started his ascendance in 2026. Let the good times roll for the fellow Jersey boy.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 +130 (FanDuel)

It’s time to buy low on Tommy Fleetwood after a tough outing by him at the BMW Championship. We’re quick to forget that he enters this week as the defending champion. Do I have faith in him repeating as the winner? Absolutely not, but he has still been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour this year from an analytics perspective, so I think betting on him to finish in the top 10 is the safer bet to make.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Cantlay Top 5 +285 (DraftKings)

We hit Cantlay top 20 two weeks ago, then top 10 last week, so why not end the year with a top 5 bet? If you have been following golf, you know just how well he has been playing and hitting the ball. As a past winner here, I see no reason why he can't finish in the top 5 again

Brad Thomas: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-138) DraftKings

I think he wins. If not, he’s going to dying trying. T4, T2, Win, and a T12 in his last four starts.

Byron Lindeque: Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 +300 with ties (BetRivers)

Desperate times call for desperate measures. After flirting with profitability just 3 weeks ago, I am now down -2.9 units with 2 minutes left in the 4th. The golfing gods have blessed us with a +300 INCLUDING TIES at BetRivers, with very similar numbers elsewhere. But if this bet cashes at these exact odds, we are up +0.1 on the season and, like Fleetwood last year, can call ourselves a winner. Prior to last week, he had 7 consecutive finishes of T7, T4, T13, T14, T11, T11, T4. I would LOVE to see another T5 from Tommy this week!

Cody Williams: Wyndham Clark Top 5 incl. Ties +220 (BetMGM)

Back-to-back wins aren’t something I like to forecast, except for maybe in the playoffs. I don’t have Clark winning, but the form is good enough to believe in another good showing. He’s gained 3.12 and 5.64 strokes on approach in his last two starts and has found his putter again. Oh, he’s also finished solo eighth and third at East Lake in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Feels like he’s primed for a good showing.

Brian Giuffra: Collin Morikawa Top 10 incl. ties +112 (DraftKings)

Plus-money on one of the best ball strikers to finish in the upper third of a field on a course where he was 2nd two years ago seems like a solid investment.

Final Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -16
Brian Kirschner: -16
Brad Thomas: -19
Byron Lindeque:-20
Cody Williams: -18
Brian Giuffra: -17

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google