Turkiye vs. USA Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Group Stage

The third round of the World Cup group stage will produce some high-intensity matchups with a lot on the line, but it will also have a handful of games that are effectively meaningless. An example of the latter is the Thursday night showdown between Turkiye and the United States.

Sure, FIFA rankings and pride are on the line, but Turkiye is already eliminated from advancing to the knockout stage, and the United States has already been declared winners of Group D.

With that being said, let's take a look at the odds and see if we can find some betting value somewhere.

Turkiye vs. United States Odds and Total

Moneyline

Turkiye +250
United States -113
Draw +290

Total

OVER 2.5 (-139)
UNDER 2.5 (+109)

Turkiye vs. United States How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 25
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Peacock
Turkiye record: 0-0-2
United States record: 2-0-0

Turkiye vs. United States History and Tournament Results

These two teams have met each other on the international stage five times, sporting an even 2-1-2 record. The most recent match was an international friendly in 2025. Turkiye won that match by a score of 2-1.

Turkiye

No team has had a more disappointing World Cup campaign than Turkiye. A popular dark horse team heading into the tournament, Turkiye largely outplayed Australia and Paraguay, but couldn't find the back of the net. They lost 2-0 to Australia and 1-0 to Paraguay.

United States

The United States comfortably won both of its matches so far, beating Paraguay 4-1 in its first match and then getting past Australia by a score of 2-0.

Turkiye vs. United States Best Prop Bet

Arda Guler Anytime Goal (+295)

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets Today, I made the case for betting on Arda Guler of Turkiye to find the back of the net at +295:

Turkiye is already eliminated from the tournament, but it can salvage some pride when it takes on the United States in its final match. Don't be fooled by Turkiye's record. It ranks second in the tournament in expected goal differential at +2.31. They've created opportunities, but have struggled to actually score.

I expect that to turn around for them in this, even though it'll be too little too late. If they do score, there's a solid chance it'll be Arda Guler. He's fifth in the tournament in shots so far with 11. He's going to get his chances, so he presents some value to score at +295.

Turkiye vs. United States Prediction and Best Bet

If you want to bet on an underdog on Thursday, I think Turkiye is your team. I broke down why in today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets Today:

This is the ultimate sell-high, buy-low spot. Turkiye has had a disappointing tournament, but you might be surprised to learn they're second in expected goal differential at +2.31, behind only Spain (+2.41). This is a team that has played well but has struggled to find the back of the net. Eventually, water is going to find its level, and while this game is largely meaningless for both teams, I expect Turkiye to want to come out firing to prove it's better than its record.

The United States, despite playing two inferior teams and impressively winning both matches in terms of the final score, has an expected goal differential of just +0.88. It's time to sell some stock in the USMNT.

Pick: Turkiye +250 via Caesars

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