Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Odds: Minnesota is Best Upset Pick for Friday Night

The start of their American League Pennant defense has not gone well for the Toronto Blue Jays. Not only do they have a losing record at 5-7, but they've suffered from a plethora of injuries, leading them to sign Patrick Corbin to start at pitcher for them against the Minnesota Twins tonight.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for tonight's series opener.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins +1.5 (-190)
Bue Jays -1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

Twins +110
Blue Jays -130

Total

OVER 9 (-105)
UNDER 9 (-115)

Twins vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (0-1, 2.31 ERA)
Toronto: Patrick Corbin, LHP (7-11, 4.40 ERA in 2025)

Twins vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Friday, April 10
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet, Twins.TV Presented by Progressive
Twins record: 7-6
Blue Jays record: 5-7

Twins vs. Blue Jays Best Prop Bet

Patrick Corbin OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110)

I have absolutely no faith in Patrick Corbin to string together a solid start in his first outing with the Blue Jays. He hasn't had an ERA better than 4.40 since the 2019 season. In 2024, he allowed the most hits and earned runs amongst all Major League pitchers. Has the betting market forgotten how bad he is? The fact that the Twins rank 10th in wRC+ isn't going to make things any easier for him.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Walk-Off Wagers, I wrote about why the Twins are a great bet as underdogs tonight:

Patrick Corbin will be making his first start for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, filling in for a banged-up rotation. I'm shocked to see the Blue Jays set as favorites with Corbin on the mound. He has been one of the most consistently bad starting pitchers in baseball over the past five years, leading the Majors in losses in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and hasn't had an ERA better than 4.40 since the 2019 season.

Not only that, but the Twins' offense has been better than the Blue Jays so far, ranking 10th in wRC+ while Toronto comes in at 19th.

Pick: Twins +110 via Caesars

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