UConn vs. Michigan Opening Odds, Preview for NCAA Tournament National Championship

The stage is set for the 2026 NCAA Tournament National Championship Game, as the No. 2 UConn Huskies have made an improbable run to yet another final to take on the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan is coming off a blowout win against the Arizona Wildcats in the Final Four, and it has won by double digits in every game so far in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines had a 33-point win over the Tennessee Volunteers in the Elite 8, and they made quick work of Arizona, getting off to a 10-1 start and never looking back.

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Dan Hurley’s Huskies are looking to win a third national title in four seasons, and they’ve knocked off two teams – Duke and Illinois – that were favored over them entering the game.

The Huskies are aiming to pull off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history, as oddsmakers have set them as 7.5-point underdogs in this matchup. UConn has a ton of experience in the NCAA Tournament on the roster, especially with star forward Alex Karaban, who has won two national title games already in his career.

The Wolverines do have a major concern entering this matchup, as star forward Yaxel Lendeborg suffered an ankle injury in the Final Four and played just 14 minutes. Can Michigan cover the spread even if it doesn’t have Lendeborg at full strength?

Here’s a look at the opening odds for the national title game, including a preview of how these teams have fared in the 2025-26 season.

UConn vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UConn +7.5 (-114)
Michigan -7.5 (-106)

Moneyline

UConn: +255
Michigan: -320

Total

143.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

UConn is a massive underdog in this game, even though Lendeborg was banged up in the Final Four.

The Huskies have now won back-to-back games outright as underdogs, but there is one thing working against them:

22 of the last 23 NCAA champions entered the NCAA Tournament in the top-20 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The Huskies don't fit that bill, but the one team to break that trend was the Shabazz Napier-led Huskies in 2014.

UConn vs. Michigan Betting Preview

The Wolverines are the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and the No. 4 team in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they’ve put up a ton of points in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan has scored at least 90 points in each game in the NCAA Tournament, but it’ll be tough to do that against the Huskies, who are eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

UConn does not have a great offense, ranking 41st in the country in effective field goal percentage, 161st in turnover rate and 306th in free-throw rate. However, the Huskies have been able to hang around with everyone in this tournament because of their defense, and Hurley’s coaching is a clear step above everyone else in college basketball.

The Huskies have played just two games as underdogs (the Elite 8 and Final Four), and they’ve been able to win both outright. Even though oddsmakers view Michigan as the clear better team, Bart Torvik’s prediction model has the Wolverines as 5.8-point favorites, nearly two points lower than the spread suggests.

Based on the moneyline odds, Michigan has an implied probability of 76.19 percent to win on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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