UConn vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament National Championship

And then, there were two.

The UConn Huskies and Michigan Wolverines will battle for a national title on Monday night after impressive wins in the Final Four on Saturday.

Let’s start with UConn, which is looking for a third national championship in four seasons. Dan Hurley’s group has won back-to-back games outright as an underdog, knocking off the Duke Blue Devils in wild fashion in the Elite 8 before downing the No. 3-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday.

UConn is set as an underdog again in the national title game, but Hurley and this team have seen just about everything there is to see in the NCAA Tournament over the last few years, and holdovers like Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart have won a national title with the Huskies before.

Meanwhile, Michigan dominated No. 1 Arizona in the Final Four, and it’s now won every game in the NCAA Tournament by double digits. The Wolverines have a +64 scoring differential since the start of the Sweet 16, and they’re 7.5-point favorites on Monday.

The Wolverines Final Four win did come at a price, though. Star forward Yaxel Lendeborg (ankle) was injured in the first half and only played 14 minutes. He’ll likely play through the injury on Monday, but it’s unclear how effective the senior will be against a tough UConn defense.

This is the final college basketball game of the season, so it’s only right that we bet on it. Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the 2026 National Championship.

UConn vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

UConn +7.5 (-114)
Michigan -7.5 (-106)

Moneyline

UConn: +255
Michigan: -320

Total

143.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

UConn vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 6
Time: 8:50 p.m. EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
How to Watch (TV): TBS/TruTV
UConn record: 34-5
Michigan record: 36-3

UConn vs. Michigan Best Prop Bet

Tarris Reed OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+116)

This season, Tarris Reed is averaging 8.8 rebounds per game for the Huskies, and now he’s taking on his former team in the national title.

Reed has 11 or more boards in three of his five NCAA Tournament games this season, including an 11-rebound game in the Final Four against Illinois.

Even though he fell short of this number in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, Reed had nine boards against a Duke team that ranks fourth in the country in offensive rebound rate and 10th in defensive rebound rate. Even though the Wolverines have a ton of size, they are outside the top-50 in the country both offensive and defensive rebound rate this season.

Reed is the Huskies only real reliable option at center, and he should play all the minutes he can handle on Monday. As long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble, he’s going to be in the conversation for 10 or more rebounds.

UConn vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan is the No. 1 team in KenPom for a reason this season, winning every game in the NCAA Tournament by double figures while absolutely running Arizona off the floor in the Final Four.

And yet, I’ve learned the lesson that we cannot fade Dan Hurley in these games.

UConn has knocked off a solid UCLA team, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois to reach the final, and Hurley has shown that he’s the best coach in the sports – and it may not be close. Even though the Huskies’ offense has some concerns, sitting at 41st in the country in effective field goal percentage, 161st in turnover rate and 306th in free-throw rate, it has moved up to eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

Now, Michigan has an insane advanced profile, ranking No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and the No. 4 team in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, asking the Wolverines to win by eight or more in the national title game, especially now that Lendeborg is banged up, seems a little high.

UConn erased a massive deficit in the Elite 8 against Duke, and the Huskies have two outright wins as underdogs in the 2025-26 season. Michigan rolled through flawed teams like Alabama and in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, but the Huskies are an experienced bunch that knows how to weather the storm in the NCAA Tournament.

This spread is pretty shocking for a national title game, and even if the Wolverines win, I’m not sold on them covering.

Pick: UConn +7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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