UConn vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for March Madness National Championship

Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies are back in the national title game, but they have a tough test on Monday night against the No. 1-seeded Michigan Wolverines, who have lost just three games all season long.

Michigan has won every game in the NCAA Tournament by double figures, blowing out the No. 1-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the Final Four. The Wolverines ended up winning by just 18 points, but they led by much more earlier in the game and have a +51 scoring margin between their Elite 8 and Final Four games.

Meanwhile, the Huskies have won back-to-back games as underdogs, knocking off No. 1 Duke in the Elite 8 on a game-winning shot from freshman Braylon Mullins before controlling Saturday’s Final Four win over No. 3-seeded Illinois.

Despite that, the Huskies are underdogs for the third time this season (and the third game in a row) in the national championship. Hurley is aiming to lead his team to a third national title in four seasons, but oddsmakers have Michigan favored by 7.5 points in this matchup.

That’s an extremely interesting line since Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg (ankle) was injured in the Final Four and played just 14 minutes against Arizona.

Can the Wolverines cover this massive number after dropping 90-plus points for the fifth game in a row on Saturday?

Or, will Hurley cement himself as one of the greatest coaches in NCAA history with yet another championship?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, two players to watch and my prediction for Monday’s National Championship.

UConn vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

UConn +7.5 (-114)
Michigan -7.5 (-106)

Moneyline

UConn: +255
Michigan: -320

Total

143.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

UConn vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Monday, April 6
Time: 8:50 p.m. EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
How to Watch (TV): TBS/TruTV
UConn record: 34-5
Michigan record: 36-3

UConn vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Yaxel Lendeborg, Forward, Michigan

One of the best players in the country this season, Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 15.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field.

The senior rolled his ankle in the Final Four win over Arizona, so it’ll be interesting to see how effective he’ll be with the quick turnaround on Monday. Lendeborg still finished with 11 points on 3-of-4 shooting on Saturday, but he only played 14 minutes.

The Wolverines may be in trouble if the star forward is unable to play his usual role on Monday night.

Braylon Mullins, Guard, UConn

The hero in the Elite 8, Braylon Mullins has found his jumper since sending UConn to the Final Four against Duke.

Mullins is shooting just 29.0 percent from deep during the NCAA Tournament, but he was 4-for-7 from 3-point range and hit a huge 3-pointer late in the second half of Saturday night’s win.

The Huskies guard is playing at home (he grew up in Indiana), and he’s the X-Factor for a UConn team that plays a lot through big man Tarris Reed.

UConn vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan’s dominance in the NCAA Tournament is hard to overlook, but I can’t fade the Huskies after what they’ve accomplished over the last four games.

UConn has knocked off a solid UCLA team, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois to reach the final, and Hurley has shown that he’s the best coach in the sports – and it may not be close.

The Huskies’ offense has some concerns – it ranks 41st in the country in effective field goal percentage, 161st in turnover rate and 306th in free-throw rate – but the team is now eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

From a metrics standpoint, Michigan is the the No. 1 team in the country, ranking No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and the No. 4 team in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, asking the Wolverines to win by eight or more in the national title game – with Lendeborg banged up – is too much for my liking.

UConn erased a massive deficit in the Elite 8 against Duke, and the Huskies have two outright wins as underdogs in the 2025-26 season. On top of that, Bart Torvik’s prediction model has Michigan as closer to a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

The Wolverines are running into an experienced UConn team that hasn’t gotten rattled when falling behind in the NCAA Tournament. Even if the Wolverines win, I’m not sold on them covering the spread in this matchup.

Pick: UConn +7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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