U.S. Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick and Patrick Reed

The U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, where, over four modern-day U.S. Opens, only three total players have finished under par. Let that sink in for a second.

The SI Golf betting panel is here with our picks for the tournament from SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Last week, Cody and I hit a split on the FRL with Sam Burns. Two weeks before, Byron and I hit Russell Henley outright at the Charles Schwab. Let’s try to cash another big win!

Shinnecock, as the stat above suggests, is known as one of the toughest tests in golf. Its sandy soil allows for quick draining, which results in fast, firm conditions. Its sloping fairways demand precision off the tee. Its fast, undulating greens befuddle even the best. While most of us have a winning score under par, par is always a good score.

Brooks Koepka won the last U.S. Open here in 2018 at 2-over. Ratief Goosen won in 2004 at 4-under. Corey Pavin was even par in 1995. Ray Floyd won at 1-under in 1986.

While the winning score is unknown, the challenge is straightforward. Windy conditions only add to the challenge of this course. There could be rain on Thursday. The USGA has said it will keep the green speeds lower than in the past. They don’t want to be accused of losing this course. Again.

Think great putters, crafty short game experts and people who can spike off the tee and on approach. As the winners list above illustrates, there’s no prototype winner here. Big, small, burly, skinny, young, old, big hitters and short. They've had it all.

Let’s get into our betting picks, with a breakdown below the graphic.

expert U.S. Open betting picks — U.S. Open betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Xander Schauffele +2200 (FanDuel)

There’s not a golfer in this field that has a better U.S. Open record without a win than Xander Schauffele. He has never finished outside the top 15 at this major, so I have faith in him at least being in the mix on the weekend. He has finished T9 and T7 at the first two majors this year, and he finished T6 the last time the U.S. Open was hosted at Shinnecock.

Brian Kirschner: Si Woo Kim +4000 (DraftKings)

I am targeting first-time major winners who have elite iron and short games this week. Si Woo fits the build perfectly. Si Woo has certainly had one of the best seasons of his career. The only thing missing is a win and nothing would be sweeter than nabbing his first major championship. Si Woo has eight top 10s this season and has played extremely consistently. It's time for Si Woo to contend in a major and this is the spot.

Brad Thomas: Chris Gotterup +5000 (DraftKings)

I expected Chris Gotterup to contend more after winning twice in such a short span, but the game is still in a good place. He’s posted a T6 at Houston, T14 at the Truist, and T10 at the PGA Championship while gaining strokes across the board. I like how well he’s played at windier courses as well, with wins at the Scottish Open and Sony Open. A ton of value at this price.

Byron Lindeque: Patrick Reed +4700 (DraftKings)

Looking to improve on his 4th place here in 2018, the gritty grinder has been stringing together a collection of four top 25 finishes in his last six majors, including a 3rd (‘25 Masters), 12th (‘26 Masters) and 10th (‘26 PGA). Reed thrives when conditions go rogue, gaining the 10th most strokes (+1.66) when scoring conditions play 2+ over par. The reason for his success in the above majors and conditions is his around-the-green play, ranking 4th in this field ARG in majors since 2021. Reed is also grading out really well on approach this week, ranking top 25 in strokes gained from 100-150 and 150-200 approach ranges. The 2018 green jacket holder has the game, the form, the experience and the motivation to win his second career major at a very affordable price.

Cody Williams: Matt Fitzpatrick +2250 (DraftKings)

A past U.S. Open winner who has the scrambling and around-the-green chops to survive Shinnecock, and who has also been in overall, all-around form this year. I know Fitzy is going to be popular this week, but I remain enamored with the profile.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +3900 (DraftKings)

While two barrel-chested beasts won the last two U.S. Opens here, Henley’s slight frame reminds me of the winner before them: Corey Pavin. This course doesn’t discriminate by body type. It asks a simple question: Who is the best at getting the ball in the hole consistently. Henley fits that mold. He’s first on tour in scrambling, 12th in total shots gained, first in driving accuracy and Top 40 in putting. He’s been top 10 the last two U.S. Opens and was T25 when it was held here in 2018. A winner already this year, let’s see if he can win his first major at the tournament that always seemed to suit his game best.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Cameron Smith +15000 (DraftKings)

If Cameron Smith was at the peak of his powers, he'd be a popular bet at a course like Shinnecock, where strong iron play and an elite short game are going to lead to plenty of success. Unfortunately, Smith hasn’t been the same golfer since joining LIV, but a T7 finish at this year’s PGA Championship may be a sign of his game rounding into form. It’s worth buying low on him at 150-1.

Brian Kirschner: Kurt Kityama +7000 (DraftKings)

I am not sure I understand this price on Kurt this week. His results read: T8, T9, T19, T10 and T22 in his last five starts on Tour. This includes the PGA Championship, Memorial, Truist and Cadillac, certainly no easy events in there. Again, Kurt fits the build of first-time major winners who have consistently won this major over the past 10 years. He’s an elite driver who has shown the ability to close a golf tournament. If JJ and Wyndham can win this event, I think Kurt can as well.

Brad Thomas: Viktor Hovland +6000 (Hardrock)

Has Hovland been leaving us breadcrumbs? Was the RBC Canadian Open a fluke, or is his game really starting to bounce back? Even with the missed cut at the PGA Championship, he didn’t play all that poorly. The putter was bad, but outside of that, he was still striking the ball well. Then at the RBC Canadian Open, he blitzed the field with his irons, and the flat stick was hot. I don’t know if he can win this week, but if he’s hitting fairways and putting well, man, he is really hard to beat.

Byron Lindeque: Justin Rose +7000 (DraftKings)

Having missed four of his last five U.S. Open cuts, it appears his futures price of 40-1 has drifted to 70-1. If this were a stereotypical bomb-and-gauge U.S. Open, I would be more concerned about that track record. Instead, we are going to embrace his 10th-place finish here in 2018 and SIX top 16s in his last nine majors, including a pair of 2nds and a 3rd. His major ranking for me is #5, while he drops to #17 when using regular PGA Tour data for the last year. I still believe he is the most ferocious competitor on Tour, with the mind that cannot resist the craving to taste high-octane competition at the peak of his sport. It’s coming home, England, but the trophy is going to be a U.S. Open one.

Cody Williams: Jordan Spieth +8000 (DraftKings)

Oh, we’re talking about chaos and carnage? Give me the chaos king, Jordan Spieth. This bet could be over and done with by the end of Thursday, sure, but it could also be the perfect week for him to simply embrace who he is: a wildcard creative genius.

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Cantlay +5000 (DraftKings)

I’ve always felt Cantlay’s best chance to win a major is at the U.S. Open. He was T45 when it was at Shinnecock last and has four top 15s in this event, including a T4 when the U.S. Open was at another course with a sandy soil base in 2024, Pinehurst. He’s 14th in total shots gained on Tour this year and Top 30 in approach and OTT. It’s hard to trust him actually pulling out the win, but I do think he’ll contend, which at +5000 is solid.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Shane Lowry +9000 (DraftKings)

No golfer in the field gains more strokes with their approach play in the first round of tournaments over the past six months than Shane Lowry. I have little faith in him being able to sustain a high level of play, especially on the weekend, but his style of golf is a strong enough fit for Shinnecock that I’m willing to bet on him at 90-1 that he’ll get off to a hot start on Thursday.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed very nearly won this event in 2018 at Shinnecock. He has played exceptional golf all season and contended in the last two majors. Reed has an early tee time on Thursday, which is where I think FRL will come from, as wind is a huge factor at this course. This major champion has shown the ability to go low. I see no reason it can't be in round one.

Brad Thomas: Sam Burns +4000 (FanDuel)

What a fast starter Sam Burns has turned into. He’s either the first-round leader or inside the top five, which feels like every event. I think for Burns, it’s really helped that his driver has cooperated, because with Burns, you know he’s going to gain a ton of strokes on approach and gain a ton of strokes putting. It’s always been about whether the driver can hold up over the course of four rounds. But with this bet, I don’t really care how the other three rounds go. I just need him to continue to be dominant in that first round like he’s done over the past few weeks.

Byron Lindeque: Cameron Smith +9000 (BetRivers)

I am also on Cam in the win top 5/10/20 markets. I think he has the potential to sun run in the short game department all week, but particularly for the opening round, of which he has an AM tee time. As the sun sets over the cornfields of Iowa this fine Tuesday night, the weather for Thursday looks to be 10 mph windier in the afternoon. His recent coaching change has his ball striking trending very positively, which will now match his world-class short game. You can grab an each way at this book too, which would be 18-1

Cody Williams: Patrick Reed +5500 (BetRivers)

Short game wizard? Check. One of the best approach play seasons of his career? Check. I’ve had some investment in Reed in every major to this point and have yet to regret it. I think he’s live to win, but also to come out of the gates hot – especially given his past success at Shinnecock.

Brian Giuffra: Chris Gotterup +5000 (FanDuel)

This number feels a bit rude to Gotterup. He leads the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average, has two wins this season, played well at the first two majors of the season and has played decently enough in his first two U.S. Open appearances. Now he gets an early tee time on Thursday, playing alongside two guys who are sure to get most of the attention, Cameron Young and Brooks Koepka. Give me the barrel-chested bomber to go low on Thursday.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Reed Top 20 incl. ties +165 (FanDuel)

Shinnecock is going to demand strong iron play and handsy chipping this week, which is exactly what Patrick Reed brings to the table. Captain America's best finish at the U.S. Open came in a solo fourth-place finish at this course in 2018. He's coming into this event with finishes of T12 and T10 at the first two majors of the year.

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns Top 20 +190 (FanDuel)

Sam has really shown up in majors over the past two years with his performance at the 2025 U.S. Open and 2026 Masters. He is consistently playing great golf and putting himself in contention. I think the way he is hitting his irons right now bodes well for another great week at Shinnecock.

Brad Thomas: Xander Schauffele Top 20 -110 (Bet365)

Xander seemingly takes major championships so seriously, or he’s just able to handle the pressure that they bring. It feels like he has been an automatic top-20 machine in every major tournament he’s played in. Since 2022, he’s finished inside the top 20 in 16 of his last 17 major appearances, and I think Shinnecock is a really good fit for him. I actually had Shinnecock circled on my calendar to bet him if we got anything better than -150.

Byron Lindeque: Harris English Top 40 +100 incl. ties (FanDuel)

Harris English has finished 41st or better in eight of his last 10 majors, finishing 59th and 50th in the other two starts. He has finished top 30 in five of his last six majors, including two second-place finishes. How are we pricing this majorly magnificent beast, who refuses to miss cuts in these events, having played the weekend in 27 of his last 30 (with three MCs coming shortly after hip surgery). In 2026, he finished top 30 in all but two events (PLAYERS MC, Cadillac T50).

Cody Williams: Bryson DeChambeau to Miss the Cut +175 (Bet365)

Bryson has been disastrous in majors thus far this season. His ball striking and short game have both been an issue, which is bad news for handling Shinnecock. I don’t see this being the place where his major fortunes change this season.

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Cantlay Top 20 +200 (FanDuel)

If I like him to win, but am concerned about him actually winning, this is a nice hedge that will cover half my bets if it cashes. Cantlay has finished Top 20 in four of the last five U.S. Opens. Yes, he missed the cut last year, but he was playing poorly. He’s back closer to his normal form now.

Winning score

Iain MacMillan: -4
Brian Kirschner: -2
Brad Thomas: -2
Byron Lindeque: E
Cody Williams: -2
Brian Giuffra: -3

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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